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Should I of folded?

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Should I of folded? - Mon Sep 24, 2012, 08:39 AM
(#1)
Mikey_Luggs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
Hi all.
I have played cash for years but have just started playing MTT's. I was in a tournament last night wheich seen me get busted in 50th place out of 3,000 but I think I should of folded either pre flop or let it go on the flop.

Me 14/14/3.3 with 24bbs
Villan 45/36/2.0 with 60bbs

6max
Villan UTG raised x3
I called UTG+1 KsTs everyone else folds

POT 7bbs
Flop AsQs4c villan checks and I bet 3bbs and the villan shoves
I called and busted against ATo.

Should I of folded pre flop?
Should I have folded to the jam? which would of left me with
18bbs? and waited for a spot where I at least had fold equity?
or was calling and taking the rish asking such a maniac a good move in the long run?

All opinions are greatly recieved

Last edited by Mikey_Luggs; Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 08:43 AM..
 
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Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:09 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
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**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24***


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Mon Sep 24, 2012, 10:31 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
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Hi Mikey_Luggs!

With KTs, for me, it will depend on how likely the opps behind me are to fold. If I can narrow the field to only me and the opp that is raising any top 36% hand, then I'm fine with calling their bet and playing the rest of the hand in position against them.
If the opps behind me are likely to call too, then I'm much more likely to muck preflop, as KTs doesn't play anywhere near as good in a 3-way pot.
If I can isolate the UTG player, then I'm actually a 51.7% favorite preflop.

The flop gives me a flush draw, gutshot straight draw and even a royal draw. With this many outs for a winning hand, when the opp checks to me, I'm going to check behind and peel a free card.

By making a c-bet, the opp now shoves 18BB more. To call, I need to put 18BB (all my remaining stack) into a pot that will be 49BB (36.7%). I now go to pokerstove to see if my hand has 36.7% or more equity... which would make it a call. When I put in my hand, the opp's 36% range and the flop cards, I get that my hand has 62.3% equity. This makes calling the opp's shove a correct play, as my hand is worth much more than the % that I have to put into the pot.

This is a great example of why bankroll management is so important. I want to be in situations where I can call this all-in over and over, without worrying about my bankroll... because it is a very large +EV play over time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Sep 25, 2012, 12:30 AM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I now go to pokerstove to see if my hand has 36.7% or more equity... which would make it a call. When I put in my hand, the opp's 36% range and the flop cards, I get that my hand has 62.3% equity.
But what is villain's check/shove range after raising preflop? (is he check/shoving 33, 97hh, etc. here?)

Anyhow, Unless you're on a satellite bubble or something like that (in which case fold the KTs preflop) Never folding here. I guess you can consider checking back the flop if you're afraid of a shove, which allows you to fold if he shoves a bad turn--nitty but at least not lighting money on fire. But putting any money in the pot and folding this flop would be very bad. You have 12 outs to the nuts, which gives you a ton of equity right there even if he has a set. He also can have worse flush draws and straight draws. Heck, a K or even a 10 might be good. You have so much equity vs. his entire range (top pair+ and probably 8-out draws or better) that you should want to get all your chips in the middle and take the flip. You also only have 18 BBs so it's not like this is a big stack vs. big stack battle where you're sacrificing a ton of tournament equity on a flip. Honestly I would expect to already be ahead a decent amount of the time when he check/shoves for that much.

I like your betsizing as if he makes a normal raise to like 8 BBs, you have enough behind to shove. I'd even go a tad smaller (maybe even a minbet). The idea is that the weak bet looks like a weak hand, so he can raise you with a ton of his range. You can then ship over this which looks SO STRONG he might even fold top pair, and if he doesn't fold you still have so much equity you're making $$ even if he calls on average. [You could also consider mixing in big bets here, like overbetting pot with your huge draw. You almost always get a fold from a pair worse than aces. And if he shoves we have a super easy call and just gotta try to bink something good.] Unfortunately just because we're getting it in with good odds doesn't mean we always win. Example, we're flipping a fair $1 coin. Winner gets the pot and the coin. I bet $1 on heads. There is $2 in the pot now, and it costs you $1 to bet on tails. You are getting 2 to 1 odds on a 50% shot. If you call the $1 there will be $3 in the pot and you will have 50% equity. So 50% of the time you will have $3, meaning you won $2 and 50% of the time you will have lost $1. The math: .5(2)-.5(1)=.5, or you make 50¢ every time you take this flip.

You have 50% equity in the $3 pot=%1.50 expected value. So do I. This is a good gamble for both of us since the overlay gives us both a positive expected value, however, one of us will lose the flip. It doesn't mean we did anything wrong.
 
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Tue Sep 25, 2012, 02:51 AM
(#5)
Mikey_Luggs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
Hi all and thanks for all your replies
Few things here that I haven't even thought of so it should help me in future pots. So a massive thank you.
Looking back now I think I should of checked behind. In cash I have no problem getting it in there as I can just reload so was probably betting their with my cash head on. Next time against a maniac I will take the free card. Make it allot easier fold if a brick hits the turn and I would of still had 25bbs
 
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Tue Sep 25, 2012, 10:37 PM
(#6)
Drarr's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
But what is villain's check/shove range after raising preflop? (is he check/shoving 33, 97hh, etc. here?)
Yeah I'd really like to know what range you had him on here too please as 62% equity seems excessive. Saying that however if we had to get it in there would be plenty of equity there and I'd never fold.

I agree with the checking behind postflop and if you miss trying to get to river cheaply as its a tourney. However with 24BBs (and I'm assuming antes in play at this stage) I think calling preflop here is going to cost you in the long run. I'd make the call on the button or cutoff but I think a good % of the time later in tourneys, you will find yourself reraised when you're calling in UTG+1 and the opener is loose. So I'd probably be folding preflop.
 

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