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......probably not. Rafa Dream Day Part 2.

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......probably not. Rafa Dream Day Part 2. - Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:54 AM
(#1)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
(cough).....can you 'ave a butchers at this one?

Villian 29 hands VPIP 14 PFR 10


Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Wed Sep 26, 2012, 09:05 AM
(#2)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
I think I'll get me coat...............
 
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Wed Sep 26, 2012, 06:58 PM
(#3)
Drarr's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 33
I'd prob open fold. Raising isn't terrible on a passive table as long as you are willing to fold to a reraise. Usually however, you're just throwing away chips with this type of hand, in this position with the stack sizes on the table.

Once you're reraised you can't call. In order to set mine (which is essentially the only hand you can hit with 44 and feel safe) you need odds of at least 8/1. In reality you probably need around 14/1 to account for the times you hit your set and don't get paid or lose.

Here there aren't the immediate pot odds and you aren't deep enough to get the implied odds you need, or in other words, chips you could win off your opponent if you hit and he pays you off.
 
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Wed Sep 26, 2012, 09:20 PM
(#4)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi WeaselBasher

I agree with Drarr,

With a slightly bigger stack '2000+' chips I will open from EP with 44 as it gives us more room to play post flop and we wont be left short stacked if we don't win the pot.

The problem here is if we open the hand and get a caller we are likely to get action from somebody that has position against us and if our cbet is either called or raised , were going to have a very hard time continuing because of how weak are hand usually flops and how little chips we have, so I'm gonna fold this preflop.

Were risking 125 chips to win 75 chips with a hand that we don't want action with 'unless we flop a set, but this happens just 1 in 8 times so it's a fold.

As played, fold to the 3bet, 14 and 10 are relatively tight stats and with the villain being so short stacked it is incredibly likely he has a very strong hand, if he had a semi strong hand like AJo then he would be shoving preflop and not luring you in with the small 3bet.

Check/Fold flop, Villain will sometimes have over cards like AK but even then were not in the greatest shape.

What we have done here is we have pretty much risked our tournament life with 44 from early position, we are left with only chump change 'a 6 bb stack'.

Hope this helps and I hope I don't come across as being harsh it's just one of them pre flop scenarios where people make the same mistake over and over and its one that needs to be fixed.

Cheers, Chris.
 

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