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Flopped Straight w/5,6o in BB Limp Pot

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Flopped Straight w/5,6o in BB Limp Pot - Fri Oct 05, 2012, 09:34 PM
(#1)
Jcrondps's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 147
So, I'm playing a freeroll satellite. Target access is granted to the top 9. There are about 275/1088 players left and I have 38BB behind. I've been playing fairly tight but have been caught betting big draw hands. 2beer61124 has been calling light and getting lucky against opponents. I don't have solid reads on anyone else. Here is the hand. The results are included b/c they are relevant.



First, my first thought was to fold. However, only 2 hands are beating me here (J,T and 6,T). If the player shoving is beating me and I shove and get called by a draw, I come out a little ahead if the draw doesn't come in. I could also be up against draws. Anyway, I'm looking for input here. This is a very tough fold in a freeroll.

IDK, I lost my mind when I saw that both players had exactly JT. It just feels so much like a setup. I'm so frustrated right now. You have to navigate a terrible field full of suckouts to make the target in these tourneys. I don't know what the odds are of this scenario but they have to be astronomical.
 
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Fri Oct 05, 2012, 11:18 PM
(#2)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Jcrondps,

Sick flop.

I don't think in a freeroll this far off the money you should ever fold here.

T6 you can probably discount as it's a pretty ugly hand. But there will be alot of JT in peoples limping ranges. There are more combinations of 9T, KT, QT, 89, 78, 56, 77, 88, 99 and others who might all stack off in the same way.

With the effective 2nd nuts just get it in and cross your fingers.

I'll say one thing though. I really don't like the check on the flop. What if it checks around and a 6, T, J or heart comes on the turn (22 bad cards for us). ugly ugly. I would want to bet and something big like 900-1100 to charge all the draws the maximum.

Your observation on running good is correct though. 9 spots out of 1088 players is one payout per 120 people. So you could expect to cash only once in 120 games you play and only if you don't get unlucky (We would assume you've got a pretty big edge on the field but you get my drift.)

Cheers
Andy




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