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$1 45 man SnG - KQo facing c/r flp

$1 45 man SnG - KQo facing c/r flp - Sun Oct 07, 2012, 05:34 PM
hellsgate10's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 13
Hey guys,

We're down to about 27 left and I'm 3rd in chips at this point. Fairly new this table and villains stats are 11/36.4/27.3/6

With the c/r on the flop, I need to put in 460 chips. I've worked out that this means that I need just over 17% equity to make this call. I plugged villains raising range into poker stove and this shows me as having ~39% equity against that range, indicating a call is the correct decision.

However, this raising range is based on a very small sample and I haven't seen this villain show down a hand yet. Also, I think his calling range here will be much smaller than the raising range.

I tried a range of 10% in poker stove and this gives me an equity of ~27%, still indicating a call. I can't see this being correct against his possible c/r range here, so I decided to try and narrow his range down by thinking about what kind of hands he'd c/r within this spot and I came up with the following:

TT+, 55, 44, AJs, AJo, KJs, KJo, AhKh, AhQh, AhTh, KhQh

This range gives me an equity of 20%, so it looks like I should still be making the call. Even so, I feel the fold was correct as a c/r at this level usually indicates a strong hand.

I guess I'm asking: in situations like this, should I be going with what poker stove is telling me, or was I correct in thinking that he most likely has me completely crushed here?

I should probably point out that I tank folded without actually going to poker stove, I only worked all this out after the end of the tournament.
Sun Oct 07, 2012, 11:35 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
Hi hellsgate10!

With KQ, from mid position, I'd make my standard opening raise, which for me is to 450 (3BB). The reason for that is that I don't lower mine to 2.5BB until the next blind level. If 400 is your standard for this blind level, that's fine.. as long as it's your standard bet.

The flop is three unders and I'd make a std c-bet here (1/2 pot for me). The opp now check/raises. It costs me 460 into a pot that will be 2675 (17.2%). This matches your numbers, so you did this calculation absolutely correct.

The correct thing to do next is to go to pokerstove, just like you did when you looked at it afterwards. I agree that against a 10% range, I have just under 27% and obviously, against a wider range, I would have even more equity.
If this range seems wider than what the opp would be playing (low number of hands against the opp in the HUD), then I'd put in a much tighter range to see what it says. I picked a top 5% hand (99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo). Against this tighter range, I still have 19.1% equity... which makes it a marginal call (still almost +2%EV).

Since even using a much tighter range than what the opp is probably playing, I'm going to call this check/raise on the flop. Yes, I'm most likely currently behind, but I have enough equity in my hand to see the turn and re-evaluate.

Another thing to look at with this, since it is a 45, I try to aim for 6-8k chips for my first goal in these, as this is normally about what it takes to get ITM (sometimes more, sometimes less). Winning this hand, when I have the equity to see the turn, would put me at the bottom of this range, even if another chip doesn't go into the pot.
Even if I have to fold the turn because it doesn't help, I still have a 22BB stack, which is a very playable remaning stack.
I want to be in this type of situation in these. I have the correct price to see a card that can give me the best hand. It can also put me on the borderline of cashing in it. Plus, if I miss, I have a playable stack that I can look for a better situation with.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Mon Oct 08, 2012, 05:00 PM
hellsgate10's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 13
Thanks John. I hadn't considered the implications of reaching a 6k stack size, or the fact that making the call and still losing the hand would leave me with a very playable stack size. More food for thought

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