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5NL 6-Max ZOOM - Nut Flush - River card pairs board - call or fold to river bet?

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5NL 6-Max ZOOM - Nut Flush - River card pairs board - call or fold to river bet? - Thu Oct 11, 2012, 06:53 AM
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EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Deep stacked at the 5NL ZOOM and playing a few speculative hands.

I flat-called a 3x raise with A7 suited in the cut-off and saw a flop 4-handed in position.

The flop gives me the nut-flush draw and when the table checked to me I made a half pot sized bet and only the shortest stack called.

The turn completed my flush and the opp checked - so I made another half pot sized bet which was called, making the pot $2.34 and leaving the opp less than a pot sized stack of $1.49

The river pairs the board and the villain donks in with the rest of his stack.

What hands could I put them on and am I committed to a call here even if I think I am often beat?



Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Thu Oct 11, 2012, 05:16 PM
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GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Edinfreeman

Tough spot . On the one hand very few combinations of hands beat us. I count 3 combinations of 99, 3 of 33, 1 of 44 and 6 of 34. That's 13 combinations if we leave out the possibility of a flop check-call from 22. I think he could sometimes check and call the flop with 22 but he probably also folds 34o in the BB with 3 people in the pot infront of him sometimes too .

So in reality maybe only 7 combinations beat us. He definitely could have played all flopped sets this way. That is he slowplayed the flop, which was a mistake by him oop and multiway, but definitely something a lot of players do. Then when the flush card came in he was reluctant to check-raise his set because of that possibility. As a result, he would get to the river with a full house or even the quads .

I think though we are getting a very good price on calling the river, so it is worth exploring whether we can make a profitable call or not.

What about worse flushes? To be honest I think it makes some sense for a player to play these this way. All he has to have done is not check-raise the turn. So let's say, since he is in the BB he can have KQss, KJss, KTss, QJss, QTss, T9ss, 89ss, T8ss, K9ss, Q9ss, we're getting up to a lot of combinations! I think he is more likely to check-call these flushes on the turn as opposed to check-raise because he doesn't have the nuts. It is strange that some players choose to play their hands this way, check-call, check-call, shove river when the board gets worse for them, but I digress.

The other possibilities are the 56 and the A5 straights. We beat these as well and if there are 4 or 5 combinations of those he can have between them then we can definitely start to think we will be winning enough on the river to make a call.

When someone makes a pot sized bet on the river, to make a break even call you have to win 1/3 of the time. Here he is making less than a pot sized bet so he only has to have 1 worse hand for every 2 better hands for us to make a profitable call.

I think actually without a read I would groan and hope to see a worse flush or a straight often enough. I am of course ruling out the 94 from this preflop range. And he could have check-raised those sets on the flop after all
 
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Sat Oct 13, 2012, 05:28 AM
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EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Thanks Gareth,



I did groan and make the call and was not surprised at the result, although they had a hand I really did not like their line with - I suppose they could have put me on a bluff on the flop as I was in position - and so they just floated - maybe put me on a total miss with Ax, a pair that was ahead of the board or flopped just one overcard eg- 66/77/88/TT/JJ - and wanted to see one more card and then hit their weak set...

..but they don't have the nuts on the river and I think they are just hoping I have nothing and fold or the flush and call - given it was a tough call with the nut flush I imagine they are usually only getting called by 99/44.


Cheers

Ed

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 05:35 AM..
 

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