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seriously - Wed Oct 17, 2012, 08:10 PM
(#1)
stedds's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 255
first hand of the premier skill league didnt raise it because they wasnt going anywhere and if i hit big they wouldnt of put me on a hand like that and i knew they was calling when i raised 600 and i was just raking them in slowly to kill on the river but yea you can guess how that worked out they hit the case 10 loada rubbish
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:13 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi Stedds!

With this being early in a skill league game, the one thing that I have to keep in mind is that I need to play very cautiously and to never take chances, especially ones where I'd be all-in.

With AJs from the BB, I really don't want to be in a multi-way pot, but it's too early to raise here in a league game (I don't have a made hand), so I will gladly check and see the flop for free.

The flop gives me the nut flush draw and a straight draw, but with three opps, I'm most likely not ahead in the hand. Due to this, I'm going to check and hope that whichever opp bets prices me in for my draws. If they do, then I'll call, if not, then I'll muck.
The opp in position bets 160. I now need to see if calling makes sense. It will cost me 160 into a pot that will be 500 (32%). To make this call correct, I need to have more than 16 outs (16 would make it an even play). I have 9 to a flush and 3 more to a K and 3 to an A.. BUT.. are all of these realistic outs? With two broadway cards on the board and multiple opps in the hand, I would discount the A's immediately (AQ or A 10 are well within the opps ranges) and I'd also discount the 10 of clubs, as Q 10 is within their ranges too. That counterfeits 4 of my outs and leaves me with 13 outs.
With 13 outs, my hand is only has 26% equity, but calling will cost me 32% and since the pot equity is higher (means that on average I will lose chips every single time I call), this is clearly a fold... especially in a league game where I do not want to take any chanes at all early.

The turn gives me a straight, BUT.. with three broadway cards on the board now and multiple opps, someone could have two pair, which has 4 outs (8%) or if someone has a set, then they have 10 outs (20%).
I now need to make a bet that prices them out for calling, in other words, every bet that I make here has to have EVERY opp pay 20% or more each time. If I don't bet enough to do that, then everytime I bet on the turn, the OPP IS GAINING chips on average, each and every time I bet.
Due to this, I'm betting 1/2 pot (330 chips). This will price out BOTH of the opps if they decide to call.
With the small bet and a call, then min-raise.... I want to raise here, but once again, I have to raise enough to price out the opponent.
By min-raising, the opp with the best odds will be the opp that only has to call 200 and when the first opp calls, it will be 200 into a pot of 2460, which is 8%.. so they get to make a GOOD play by calling! Each time the opps call, they expect to break even if they have KQ, K 10 or Q 10, or GAIN 12% if they have a set.
Whenever I make a bet, I want to be doing it for a reason and also, I only want to be betting when doing so is a +EV play for me over time (a play that I gain chips on average, each and every time). I do not want to ever give any of my opponents a +EV play if at all possible, becuase in those situations, I expect to LOSE chips.

The river is one of the four denomination of cards that I do NOT want to see (5, 10, Q, K). Now.. anyone that had two pair that included a 10 or set now has me crushed and every single one of those hands is well within all of my opps ranges, especially early in a tourney. Due to this, if I'm still in the hand, I'm going to check and hope to get to a cheap showdown.
I do not want to bet here and especially, I do not want to go all-in, as I can very, very easily be beat.. and if so, I'm getting a LARGE negative number of league points for this tourney, that can damage my ability to reach the better pay levels for the league at the end of the month.

The entire goal in league games is to accumulate points by lasting as long as possible for the month-end payouts and I want to do this by taking no chances early in them, as I do not want to get any negative point totals from a game if at all possible. I also do not ever want to be all-in early unless I'm 100% certain that I will have the best hand after all 5 cards are on the board.

Also, making small abnormal bets that give the opponents a positive EV draw whenever I have the best hand is a play that I do not ever want to make at any table. All of my post-flop bets will be based on the size of the pot or a previous bet on the street that I am yet to act on.
Whenever someone draws out on me when it is a positive play for them to draw, is a very large mistake on my part and since it is a +EV play for them and a -EV play for me... I deserve to and will lose chips on average every single time I put myself in this situation.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 07:23 AM
(#3)
stedds's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 255
cheers john like you say it was the first hadn i hadnt even got comfy in my chair id just sat down and started to sort stuff and i really dont know why i shoved there because usually id of known i was beat maybe i shoved out of anger that i no one or both of them got there on the river just sums it up if id of re raised bigger on the turn it wouldnt of made any difference they both would of been calling all in beacuase there both major LAGS LP wont be making the same mistake twice thats for sure rather get it in good on the turn
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 08:58 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stedds View Post
rather get it in good on the turn
Early in a league game, the best idea is to get OUT of the hand on the flop (because I'd be making a big -EV call) OR if I'm still in the hand to use pot control.

I do not ever want to get it in on the turn here in a league game... it's asking for nothing but a big negative number for a hand early. I'm never going all-in early in one until I know that I have the nuts after all 5 cards.. which will never happen here.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:04 PM
(#5)
stedds's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 255
what so even if i had won that hand id of got negative for it whys that i really dont get this scoring
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:11 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
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The scoring goes by where you finish, the field strength and what your league score is. The higher your league score is... the farther and farther you need to make it into a tourney to get to even points for playing it. It also means that a player is penalized more and more for early exits. Due to this, taking any chance early is a play that I do not want to make.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:55 PM
(#7)
stedds's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 255
ahh right i see that explains the big hefty -25 and -30s then lol and thats why my score was lowering when i was at the top even when i cashed or bubbled the ft
 

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