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Hand #3 vs Villain2

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Hand #3 vs Villain2 - Thu Oct 18, 2012, 05:51 AM
(#1)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
Villai

Last edited by rule110; Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:01 AM..
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 08:44 AM
(#2)
Kedan87's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 74
T3s is an easy fold for me preflop. Yes it is suited, but you will only hit your flush draw on the flop about 1 in 7 times, and then on that 1 time you do get a draw, your draw will only complete to a flush by the river 1 in 3 times.

The other 6 times your hoping your T3 will be good. Realistically you’re going to hit 1 pair when you do hit the flop, and I'm never going to be happy with a pair of 3's and a T kicker or a pair of T's with a 3 kicker, even against a calling station I’m not overly happy.

With all that being said you hit a pair of 3's on the flop which is middle pair, and we know the next two cards are likely to be overcards leaving you with 4th pair by the river. Against most players you will be looking to check/fold this all the time, but with this being are calling station you can bet very thin for value. It's a very marginal spot and I wouldn't expect to win much in the long run, but I still expect you to be ahead of his range 2/3rds or the time on the flop, and half the time by the river.

For that reason you can bet half the pot for value expecting him to call. The turn as expected brings an overcards to your pair and gives you the flush draw. I would again bet half the pot for value expecting another call, if at any stage he re-raises me I would be looking to fold.

The river completes your flush, so at this point against the calling station I'm looking to get as many of my chips in the middle as I can. He makes a small bet into us, but after we checked the turn that could easily be a weak bluff, so I'm re-raising him the pot.
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 08:57 AM
(#3)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
The mory helpful

Last edited by rule110; Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:01 AM..
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:07 AM
(#4)
Kedan87's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 74
I think you flop bet is fine. Yes we know this villain is a calling station and you are ahead of his calling range here, but he could still have top pair, he's playing ATC so he could even have 2 pair. So yes you do want to bet for value to increase the amount you win, but at the same time this is a very marginal spot, so don't go crazy with your raises as he could have you beat. for that reason a half pot bet sounds best as it prices out any of his draws, and if he has got you beat you don't end up losing a huge pot.

Remember the saying, win small pots with small hands and big pots with big hands. This is definitively a small hand so don't go making a big pot. And again remember be selective about your starting hands, T3s is rarely going to get you a big hand, but it could give you a flush when someone else has a bigger flush and that will lose you a big pot. Fold T3s preflop, you got lucky this time, but luck won’t last forever.
 
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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:37 AM
(#5)
Kedan87's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 74
Actually looking back I'm not so sure betting on the flop is the right play. When he checks to us on the flop there is a good chance we are ahead now, but with two more overcards to come I'm not so sure I expect a pair of 3's to win enough pots to be betting them.

It's a tough one, you could either take my first advice and bet for value as you believe your ahead now and charge him to draw, or you could go for pot control and check the flop knowing he is likely to bet the turn with almost all his cards, so planning to call him and hope he keeps it small, with the intention of doing the same on the river unless you hand improves.

I'm interested to see what a hand analyser advice would be post flop here. It's out of my comfort zone as I rarely play T3s post flop. I would only ever raise it if I was on the button or CO with nits behind me that I expect to fold almost all the time, therefor no post flop play.
 
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Fri Oct 19, 2012, 02:26 PM
(#6)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
This is just a very clear spot to fold before the flop. Our hand is very weak and doesn't have that much potential.

Sure we want to attack this player, there are going to be plenty of opportunities when we have the top 33% of hands -- in fact, once every 3 hands we will likely have a hand with which to attack this opponent.

We are looking for suited cards, connected cards, and high cards. Here we only have 1 of those things. And our suitedness has become less valuable by the fact that any flush we make is only ten high.

There honestly isn't that much to talk about in this hand after that point. There are plenty of hands to take money off of this guy with, this just isn't one of them.
 

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