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Fold??? - Sun Oct 21, 2012, 06:41 AM
(#1)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385


is this worth a call or a tight, good fold?
Villain is 20/17/AF2/AFq54(80)

And he/she is Polish btw...
 
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Sun Oct 21, 2012, 07:14 AM
(#2)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I'd err towards calling.

His re-raise tells me he has an under pair, JT or A9o. Most will "trap" if they hit the 8 or a full house and his stats would suggest he's an aggressive player. He likes to get his chips into the pot so I would suspect he's raising any pair or strong A.

Seeing as your using HEM or PT, have a look at his hands that he's previously shown and get a read on his raising range, his 3 bet range and his calling range and you'll get a feel for what he has.
 
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Mon Oct 22, 2012, 03:32 AM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Wikked

I think you are going to have a hard time getting away from this one.

Let's think about the hands he calls in MP v UTG. How often do you think his calling range in this spot has an 8 in it? I think he is more likely to have an 8 in his calling range on the button or in the big blind, what do you think?

The fact that he is raising into a field of four certainly seems strong in general, but his VPIP/PFR doesn't have a wide gap, which again, leads me to believe he doesn't call here preflop with 86s, T8s, 87o, 98o. Really he has to have A8s or 98s or maybe 87s... and that's IF he calls those preflop, he might not.

With that read out of the way he ca still have us beat if he has 99. But there are many other hands with which he could raise our flop bet that he thinks is the best way to play it. We don't have the ace of spades, so he might raise a hand like ATss that he feels will play best if he raises now. He could certainly have hands like JT or QJss that he also wants to play fast.

What if he was trapping before the flop with a hand like QQ or KK? That seems like a pretty big potential hand for him given the situation. Maybe he was looking for a preflop squeeze that never came to pass.

Overall without blocking hands like AKss AJss from his range, I would definitely three-bet the flop looking to get all the money in. I think a size like 2.90 is probably best. This leaves him the option of calling (incorrectly) or making the last shove. That being said actually, out of position, I don't mind moving all-in. The thing though is I would rather he continue with his JT type hands even though we are going to be committed on a Q turn the times he calls.

Hope some of my preflop read on how many 8x hands he has makes sense, let me know if it doesn't.
 
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Mon Oct 22, 2012, 03:39 AM
(#4)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
Heys guys,

Thanks for the replies and analysis Ovalman and Gareth, really good insight/ breakdown me reckons...

In the actual hand, I folded on the flop (yea.. I'm that kind of a Nit. sometimes)
 

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