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EV OooHPls (Number Input)

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EV OooHPls (Number Input) - Mon Oct 22, 2012, 09:48 AM
(#1)
Orzhubi's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 3
SEEKING HELP HERE! Sorry for the long post! Here goes..
I understand in an EV Calling situation,
EV = (Pot*Win%)-(Call*Lost%)

However if it is a re-raise situation.. I keep going in circles as I'm not sure of the value input.. Need help! Here goes..

Hero on Button QQ(~55%) vs Villain on Big Blind AK(~45%)
Pot = $13
Blinds @ $1/2
Villain bets $6.5 (1/2Pot)

CALL
($19.5*55%) - ($6.5*45%)= +7.8
(Hopefully right to this point:X)

Here's where my headache comes ..
If I'm considering a 3Bet to $13. Villain now needs to call another $6.5(Regardless good or bad raise for now :X)

Assume Villain Fold = 40%

1. Vi Folds
(40%*19.5) = +7.8
2. Vi Calls another $6.5 & Hero Win
Issit.. ($39*55%) = +21.45
3. Vi Calls another $6.5 & Hero Lose -17.55
Issit.. ($39*45%) = -17.55
4. Vi 4Bet..(Am I thinking too much here?)

Therefore I SORT OF concluded EV of reraise to be..
+7.8 + 21.45 - 17.55 = +11.7

The thing is.. I'm not sure if I'm inputting the correct Amount for the red areas.. And do I need to input the part where the villain NOT FOLDING 60% of the time?
 
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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:16 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Sorry, not really sure where you're going with this as no villain is folding AK 40% of the time preflop here to a 3b, and you can't really calculate the EV of the 3B because it's not an all in situation anyway. But the formula if it were all in would be:

EV=money won (current pot)*% of time Villain folds + money won*% of time villain calls and you win - money lost *% of time villain calls and you lose


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Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:28 AM
(#3)
Orzhubi's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 3
Thanks Dave. Never knew the EV calculation was not applicable for 3 bet situations. And yea that AK 40% is ridiculous! was trying to get my question posted fast! haha

Is there a better way to know if 3Betting in a particular hand is a good option besides est range & looking at Fv3Bet%?

Would be great if I can get some advice here from u!
 

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