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Marginal Spot?

Marginal Spot? - Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:14 PM
Jameisus's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 45
Hi, decided to post several hands tonight, had a good session but also had a few tricky hands that lost me a fair bit, here's the first:

I'm fairly sure calling the original c-bet is correct, otherwise I shouldn't be in this hand at all, and this player has definately been playing aggressive in position when it is checked to him, often betting every street, so I call thinking I'll call his future bets for value. I also think betting here forces out his bluffs and is making the pot big OOP against a looser aggresive player.

However, the bet on the turn throws me as it is very big. Usually his bluffs have been between 1/3 and at most 2/3's the pot, so looking back I wonder if this is the point to have folded.

However, I called hoping he'd shut down (is this a mistake? Certainly feels it!). Of course he didn't, and now I'm fairly sure I have to fold, as the bet is so big and as I said above out of character for this player.

But of course my confusion is whether there would have been any value in calling, and what I would need to run through my head to work this out.

He could be overvaluing a Jack, or slow playing a King (which is going to be better than mine about %50 or so of the time as he can limp any 2 cards in any position). Or he could have caught a random hand, or he could be bluffing (maybe as much as %40 of the time).

SO maybe this is a marginal spot at best and a fold is correct?
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:59 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi Jamei,

I'm a little confused on your flop description, there's no continuation bet as there's no preflop aggressor, and you are betting, the villain is only calling. At any rate, the read is that this player is aggressive in position when checked to and has a tendancy to bet every street, therefore I like your line of check-calling the turn and would check-call the river as well. Especially when all draws except specifically QT have missed, he's going to have a fair bit of Jx and busted diamonds in his range here, plus 9x and other random stuff with you inducing by checking to him. So sometimes we are paying off QT, J9, and better kings but against this player as described should be good often enough to be profitable I'd think. It's very close and if the bet sizing is concerning then folding the river is ok though (usually when it's close either way then it's not a big deal one way or the other which you do).

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