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Rule of 4 & 2

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Rule of 4 & 2 - Sat Oct 27, 2012, 02:44 AM
(#1)
VMBOY's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 8
I get confused.
If say I have a flush draw on the flop with 9 OUTS, and someone bets into me, creating a pot of say $15, with $5 to call their bet.
Pot odds = 5/20 =25%
Chance of getting my flush on the turn = 2 x 9 =18%
SO FOLD.
But, many books seem to compare the pot odds to the chance of getting the flush by the river = 4 x 9 = 36%....which suggests CALLING.
Can anyone please clarify.....do I only use x4 if my opponent's All-in post flop, so my call decision really is in this instance including both the turn and river cards?
Thanks
Andrew
 
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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 04:19 PM
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Hi Andrew!

Welcome to the forum. Here's a link that will help to get you familiar with many of the things tha PSO has to offer.

When looking at a situation like this, I only want to use 2% for my outs, as there could be more betting on the turn. The only time that I would use 4% is if someone (me or the opp) would be all-in, so that I would be guaranteed to see both streets.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:06 PM
(#3)
VMBOY's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 8
Thanks.
Could you clarify please on the Courses section, Semi-bluffs, the second video says ok to call as have correct price to call.
By my calculation:-
Outs = 9 (flush) + 4 (inside straight) - 1 (common card J spades) + 3 (Aoe overcards) = 15.
Chance of winning on Turn = 2 x 15 = 30%

Call would be $7 into a pot of $14....pot odds = 7/21= 33%

....why say have "correct price to call".....whereas I think a fold is the correct play?.......or if the two percentages are very close is that good enough...especially with a strong flush/straight/overcard draw....which would have approx 60% to hit by the river, making us favorites to win?
 
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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:19 PM
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Which hand are you looking at? what are the cards that you have and what is on the board?

I can see that if you have a flush and gutshot straight, then if you count 9 for the flush, then you can't count 4 for the inside straight, as you've already counted one of them for the flush draw.

Please let me know that info and I'll go thru the hand with you.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:42 PM
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VMBOY's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 8
Pocket cards: A T spades
Board K 2 spades; Q diamonds
 
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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:43 PM
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Hi Andrew!

With those cards, I would have 9 outs to the nut spade flush. I also could win with a J for the nut straight (three other J's available). I could also possibly win with an A (three of those available). I would discount the other 10's as outs, as someone that bets should have a K or Q.

With 15 outs, I have 30% equity to the turn, and 60% equity if I can see both streets.

Was the $14 in the pot before the opp's bet, or was it $7 before and they bet $7?

If it was $14 before their bet, including both of our bets, the new pot would be $28, so I need to put $7 into $28, which is 25%... making it an easy call.

If it was 14 including their bet, then I need to put 7 into a pot that will be 21, which is 33.3%... which makes it a marginal fold. However, it's actually closer than that, as there is are runner/runner combinations that can help me too (J8, 10 10). Also, any combo where the board hits 2 pair, my A can play for high hand too. These combinations added in would make me call here.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Oct 28, 2012, 01:58 AM
(#7)
VMBOY's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 8
Many thanks. I don't know what a runner is.....but other than that you've cleared it up in my mind....the pot was $14 before the potential call , so it's a marginal fold....or call with those extra "runners".
Thanks
 

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