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MTT 2,2+R NL: KJs, flopped 2nd nuts, tough river spot

MTT 2,2+R NL: KJs, flopped 2nd nuts, tough river spot - Tue Oct 30, 2012, 09:24 AM
Pr0teus's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 7

In Turn the oponnent is 4:1 underdog right?

here s my thought:
1.utg general raise, one call mp with stats in 22 hands of VPIP/PFR/aggro= 9/0/1;
2.i think if he had AQsc he would reraised preflop cause we are the deepest stacks in table;

3.he wouldnt call 47sc for sure;
4. defenitly a pp or AcTx;

5. after a big squeeze, he shoves!!! outch?! INSTANT CALL!

RIVER 4:1 underdog and i got suckout?

plz say something

Last edited by Pr0teus; Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:32 AM..
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 01:41 PM
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hey pr0teus

I like raise size preflop... now on the flop there's only 2 hands that beat us which are the nut flush and a straight flush but we can assume that villain isn't calling our raise with 47 of clubs.

This is a tremendous flop for us and rather than betting really big like you did I'd be looking to make sure I get value from his weaker hands by betting smaller on the flop and turn.

If villain didn't have a set it is likely he has Ax of clubs or a medium pair with a club so we really want to keep these hands in and get as much value as we can and give the villain an opportunity to bluff raise or semi bluff raise us.

As played though, we are definitely not folding to his shove especially as we have already put in 3/4 of his stack. It's costing us 11,000 chips to win a pot of 80,000 chips and with the 2nd nuts there's no way we can fold and no way we would want to fold.

Your bet sizing of 22,000 on the turn is almost x2 the pot size which is very big, we will earn a lot more money in the long run by betting a lot smaller here, 'say half to 3/4 of the pot'. It worked nicely this time as villain had top set and wasn't going anywhere. We must remember that even though are hand is vulnerable, it is still an extremely strong hand and we want to get as much value as we can from it. We want villain to call us with hands like 89+ and any pocket pairs and of course any flopped flushes which he could sometimes but very rarely show up with, and by betting 22,000 on the turn were not going to keep in them hands very often.

Unlucky river card sir! Keep it up and good luck at the tables , hope this helped.
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 02:59 PM
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Hey ChewMe,

I was just wondering if you give give an evaluation from the opponents perspective as well. Was his shove good considering he had 10 outs?

This often confuses me a bit because even if I have 15 outs say on the turn, there are still a possible 29 cards that will result in a missed draw.



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