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Heads up, to call or not to call?

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Heads up, to call or not to call? - Tue Oct 30, 2012, 05:35 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Hey all

been a long time since I showed my ugly mug here. I kinda haven't played a single hand in exactly 7 months to the day But after all the WSOP on TV I got itchin' again.

Anyways,I was surprised after all the fancy play on TV how easy it was to read some players. But that's not why I'm here.

We're down to hand #122, heads up in a $1.50 9 man SnG.
Here's what happens:



First off, I haven't seen this guy act out of line at all. Everytime I saw his cards he had something. He did appear to be playing a bit more hands after we cracked the bubble, but he overall appears on the tight side. This is the 10th hand in heads up, and I had raised his BB everytime except once when I mucked.

Preflop, 9,10 suited, heads up is an automatic raise to 2 x (he'd been playing 2 x ever since 4 handed, and since I had seen him fold his BB to a 2 x raise before, I didn't see a reason to bet more. I followed suit and made it 2 x every time too).

Bit unusual - he 3-bets instead of call/fold. Still, the suited 9,10 is a nice hand heads up, and worst case scenario means a] he has AA inwhich I have decent equity to flop big, in which case I can get it all and win. But the odds are he has a pair or a big ace. If he has a pair and the ace flops I might even get him to fold it. And even if I screw up, my chiplead is big enough to double him up without immediately having to go into despair mode. So I make the call. Maybe a 4-bet would work, but if he has a smallish pair he's not gonna fold to a shove where he might fold on a bad flop, so I opted to not reshove on him. And - I will be in position the rest of the hand.

Hello flop.
Yikes,. I flop a 10, my kicker's so-so, the queen is there, and three diamonds. He checks. So probably he doesn't have the queen. At this point I'm thinking an unpaired ace or a pair that cannot beat a queen if I had it. If I make a nice bet, good chance he'll fold the ace, and if he has something like pocket 7, maybe that too.

So I bet just over half pot. Stupid me, I hadn't considered a shove and then what. Yes, I should have known what I'd do if he shoves on me now. Wasn't thinking that far ahead just yet.

So he shoves.

Now what?

a] call
b] fold

* In favor of a: I'm pretty much committed. Not because of my stack, but because of the odds. I have to call 1700 in order to win a pot of 6100. So in order for the call the be profitable I have to be right only about 1/3rd of the time. He could be holding a huge pair (AA, KK, Qx), but hjust as easily AK, something lower than my 10, or a decent flush draw. And even a straight draw isn't out of the question. I had made such semibluffs myself this SnG (without having to show), I hadn't seen anybody else pull a move like that. Not a clue if he's capable of it. My quick thinking says I have him beat more than 1/3rd of the time, so yes, make the call.

* In favor of b: I've not yet seen him make a strong move with a not-so-strong hand, leaning the odds more towards him having a pair that beats mine, or something like a straight and flush draw with a ton of outs.


Love to hear your thoughts.

Also: I'm a bit rusty - 1700 to win 6100 is about 3 to 1 which means my hand has to be 33% or better to win, correct? Or was it 4 to 1 (since it's 1700 to win 7800) and so I only have to have a 25% hand?
Yes, I know the percentages are a bit rough

Last edited by Ov3rsight; Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:38 PM..
 
Old
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Tue Oct 30, 2012, 06:28 PM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Hey OS,

Good to see you back

I am not a heads up specialist by any means but pre I think it is shove or fold to the 3bet. I probably would shove because in my limited experience of HU tags get looser when short and lags get tighter.

On the flop with his check raise I am again going to make the call simply because of the odds.

You could be crushed, he could be on a draw or he could have a small pair or even air.

Good spot, it will be interesting to hear other opinions and the outcome.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:25 AM
(#3)
PSO-horror77's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 226
WhiteStar
hey ov3rsight,

T9 is a hand with which you cant really call a 3bet with, so my suggestion is fold preflop.
why? cause on general you flop a middle pair and have a tough decision, you might even be dominated (against higher kicker or overpair) to start with.

so easy fold preflop

as played, if you call preflop and you hit anything (which in this case is a second pair) you have to go in with it, cause that is what you call for preflop most of the times.

note: with those shallow stacksizes easy fold preflop, you might be calling with something like an effective 50BB stack or sth, so actually be able to play your draws when you hit them or to bluff villain of certain hands aswell
 
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Wed Oct 31, 2012, 04:04 PM
(#4)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Not surprised. Whole reason I posted is is the nagging idea I messed up the hand. And you're right - he flipped over KT off so he had me outkicked.

Sucked out with a 9 on the river though. like they say - wrong move at the right time....
 

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