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2NL 9-max: QQ

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2NL 9-max: QQ - Wed Oct 31, 2012, 07:34 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
The villain is playing 14/6.
Could I have ever escaped from this one ? lol
On the flop I decided I was gonna stack.


Last edited by fp_boss77; Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 07:41 PM..
 
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Thu Nov 01, 2012, 10:29 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi fp,

Again, no post flop stats here for a spot where we get raised on the turn, but the villain is passive preflop at least, so when we get raised on the turn solidly I think we are up against strong hands only (better than 1 pair, even with AK a passive player is just calling here). It's tricky of course because we have 2nd set. If we actually held AK or AA I think this is a fold to the turn raise tbh as a passive guy will always have those beat and we have only 4 outs to make a broadway straight holding an ace.

Here's different though, with QQ we can be crushing KQ, KT, TT, and 44, and are losing to KK, AJ, J9. Against this range we're about 51%, and I think that's our worst case scenario as I included all combos of hands ahead of us although that may not be realistic in practice (I included all combos of KK, but he would sometimes 3b that preflop even being passive, and I included all combos of J9, although he would sometimes fold the offsuit ones preflop being fairly tight... I also included NO combos of QT although there are 3 possible and he could once in a while have this, which has 0 equity on the turn). So even in our worst case scenario we're a small favorite vs his probable range, with an overlay from the pot. So in this regard rather than saying could you escape (results oriented) the question is should you be getting away or stacking off, and the correct EV answer here without more detailed reads is you should be stacking off.


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Thu Nov 01, 2012, 11:54 AM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Well I only looked as far as the turn this time and this type of play from a passive player indicates a made hand. I don't see me folding here though unless I have a really solid read that he only bets his made hands. I usually differentiate my reads on LPA players as to whether they bet with part or only made hands.

I will continue my thoughts after I look again as the replayer only pauses once for me and if I restart again here it will go to the end

Well I am not sure what happened on the river, the money just went to the villain, so I am assuming you folded to another raise.

These spots I feel are the ones where you can make your money or lose your money. Now if I have a solid read that the villain only raises made hands I assume I should fold even though I have a theoretical 10 outs. From a maths perspective should I call though?

From the villain's perspective I assume he has AJ and a straight. Could you comment on his play here as well Dave?

Thanks,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 12:05 PM..
 
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Thu Nov 01, 2012, 04:35 PM
(#4)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Bump
 
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Fri Nov 02, 2012, 12:14 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Top,

Made hand definitely, but the problem here is that we can only think about folding really if he only raises the turn with the nuts, but that's not realistic as there are surely made hands that would probably be willing to raise which we are beating. The obvious one that comes to mind is a set of tens or 4's, KQ and KT could also qualify.

Regarding the river, I had to look at it like 3 times myself, it seems to look weird in the replayer as it jumps from the turn action to directly having the pot being pushed with a river card out there. We are all in on the turn though so there's no river action. It looks misleading because we're used to that slight delay between card, show, and the pot being pushed, and here there's no show and no delay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
From the villain's perspective I assume he has AJ and a straight. Could you comment on his play here as well Dave?
Sure, I think calling preflop with AJ is not good vs. an EP raise unless we have strong reads that the opener is super loose from EP (we have the best hand a fair bit), or is very conservative post flop (we will be able to take some pots away when the board is not good for their probable range). Mostly this should just be folded preflop. On the flop I don't hate a call with AJ in position, as basically a float... but the plan should be to bet the turn unimproved if checked to, so we can try and get the villain to lay down hands like TT and even AQ. We probably have to follow through on the river as well to get AQ to lay down as that likely check/calls us on the turn. This is a nice example of where the read as stated above becomes so important... if a guy is going to stick to the pot and check-call down with 2nd or 3rd pair (AQ, JJ/TT) then he's not a good float candidate and AJ is just a fold preflop without the availability of that weapon to make getting involved profitable.

Of course he turns gin and we bet again, and he raises with the nuts, it's well played imo. We rate to have a real hand at this point so there's no reason to slow play the nuts, and his raise size is great to trap us into our stack with just strong 1 pair hands... like if we had AA here, he's expecting us to call this raise for .32 more and then the pot will contain 1.31 and we'll have 1.36 left for the river, so he sets up a pot sized bet which he's accustomed in microstakes for players to automatically stack with AA or AK on a king high board. The only thing I might like is a bit big bigger raise size... if we make it .60 instead of .50, AA/AK is still calling imo, and now there'll be 1.51 in the pot and 1.26 left to bet, even harder to get away from stacking off aces and more value against a hand like JJ that will call with their draw but check-fold a blank river.


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Fri Nov 02, 2012, 02:33 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks for the extended feedback Dave. Appreciate it

TC
 

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