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10NL 6 Max Overpair on draw heavy board

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10NL 6 Max Overpair on draw heavy board - Sun Nov 04, 2012, 05:16 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain was 38/29, AF: 3.4:



I was thinking of extracting value from 77+, A6, any straight or flush draws. Hands that are beating me are 44, 55, 66, 54, 56, 64, 73, 23 and 87.

Is it reasonable to go all in on the flop against this loose a villain?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:34 AM..
 
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Mon Nov 05, 2012, 11:18 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

This is a tough spot because our villain seems loose and aggressive postflop. But not all flops were meant for us to take advantage of this tendency they have. On a Q85 flop with KK I would be happy to go with it on the flop versus players of this type often because I expect them to overvalue top pair type hands and to raise draws aggressively.

Here I think we have three choices when we face the flop raise and unfortunately I think you chose the worst of the three: raise. I think raising is going to ensure we put in a lot of money either crushed (behind 80/20 or worse) or coin-flipping (45-55 one way or another).

So what I mean by that is I think typical hands for him to get all in on the flop with us are the ones you listed, "44, 55, 66, 54, 56, 64, 73, 23 and 87." But straight and flush draw hands also usually have a pair or an overcard to our hand (like the nut flush draw). These hands typically either do well against us or have us drawing to few outs.

One hand doing 'fine' against us

Board: 5h 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.586% 57.78% 00.81% 572 8.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 41.414% 40.61% 00.81% 402 8.00 { 7h7s }

And 77 might be one of the weakest hands he goes with on the flop!

Let's talk about what hands you thought you could get value from, specifically 77-QQ.

Don't a lot of these hands, when this opponent has them, three-bet before the flop? Certainly I would expect a villain of this type to three-bet at least TT, JJ, and QQ, if not 99 as well. That means that those hands that we do in fact crush, might not be in his range to see the flop the way we have, and consequently, can't be in his range to raise the flop in this circumstance. That could be a big problem for us!

So this is a roundabout way of saying that I think both calling and folding are better than raising. If you aren't comfortable with calling to fold on a future street if his aggression continues unabated, something that is certainly understandable, then folding now is probably our best route. He has made a big raise size and we are out of position with a ton of bad cards to potentially come off. What's the worst that could happen if we bet/fold KK here? He'll never know what we had
 
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Mon Nov 05, 2012, 11:26 PM
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TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23
What's the worst that could happen if we bet/fold KK here? He'll never know what we had
Totally makes sense, I was always concerned about laying down premiums, thinking "hero folds" are stupid. In this situation I agree it's definitely not a "hero fold" situation, is one that we have to reconsider our KK on such flop texture.

Villain held 66, I was totally crushed on the flop. Against a big flop raise, I guess I shouldn't "fast-play" my KK and re-evaluate the strength of my 1 pair hand with only 2 outers
 

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