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Ouch

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Ouch - Mon Nov 05, 2012, 04:00 AM
(#1)
Jameisus's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 45


And I so nearly folded it...

Is this -ev? Is this a mistake? My thinking was top pair / any two pair I beat, and bluffs, and only two straights connected on the river.

Should I have folded? Or is it not a big problem either way?

Really thinking I should have folded to such a massive bet...
 
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Mon Nov 05, 2012, 10:55 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Jame,

I think this is a fold personally. Unless you have reads to the contrary, it's fairly safe to assume this type of river action (large bet in general, but in particular a big overbet) is the nuts or at least is a bona fide monster trying to make up max value. In this case 2 pair or sets would have raised you earlier in the hand most likely, not check-call 2 streets then make a massive overbet on the river. So my assumption is that this is a monster made whole by the 2. Which means 22, A4, 64... there are 16 combos each of A4 and 64 he can have and only 3 combos of 22. And he's more likely to go to the river with A4 (gut shot plus ace high) or 64 (open endeer) than he is with an underpair to the board.

If he has a busted draw, 67 being the most obvious as a double gut shot, he could bluff the river by risking much less than his entire stack. This isn't a good river to bluff anyway but he would probably bet like .25c not all $1.74.

Mathematically we have to be right 46% of the time to break even on this call, without specific reads I just don't think we are nearly this often.

Also preflop, generally bring it in for a raise if you're first in, don't really like limping here as much... take the initiative.


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Tue Nov 06, 2012, 03:59 AM
(#3)
Jameisus's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 45
Hi, thanks as always for the sound advice.

I would normally raise, will make sure I don't make this mistake again :/

My thoughts were along the lines you laid out, will definately consider all this next time something like this happens.
 

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