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Raisers ZOOM Hand 1

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Raisers ZOOM Hand 1 - Fri Nov 09, 2012, 08:20 AM
(#1)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
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Here's a ZOOM hand.

Very little info on the villain, only 18 hands where he had a VPIP of 18% and a PFR of 12%, pretty tight I guess.

Is this river bet an insta-call or insta-fold considering the paired board and the assumption that this player is tight?

Should I be just happy to get the chips in with these situations every time or will this cost me money. Is a fold here terrible?

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

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Fri Nov 09, 2012, 12:44 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi Paul

First on the turn, I don't think a small bet (half the pot) is ideal... would prefer to make a bigger bet here for value. We turned the nuts, and the card also is likely to improve the villains flop made hand range a fair bet (hands that call preflop, and on the flop, which improve now: KQ, KJ, JT, J9, Q9 may have peeled, QJ, AcJc, 89 or T9 that peeled picked up a straight draw... quite a bit of his hands have helped or at least are not overly scared by this turn card). So I think a bigger value bet is in order here.

On the river question, I would advise against an absolute like "every time" to get it in or fold. Each situation is a bit unique, so looking at each one individually is a good idea.

So in this spot I think the villain's line is virtually always a shove for value. It presents us with a tricky spot for sure, since we actually hold a strong hand in the nut straight. If we had a hand like AK here I think that would be a super easy fold in this spot, since his entire value shoving range beats that. So the key question we need to answer is what is his value shoving range? What is strong enough (to this player... player reads are part of the unique aspect of these spots)? I don't think we have enough info to make a definitive read one way or the other here with only 18 hands of data... preflop he's tight-aggressive and we have no post flop reads. If I feel like a player will be able to play a hand like Q9 or 89 this way (from preflop to river across all actions) then I'm inclined to call this shove as I think he has enough worse hands in his "value shoving range"... such a player might also show up with just trips and think it's the nuts, or might overestimate the value of a hand like KJ in this spot. If the player is more tight/conservative post flop, then their shoving range is basically full houses and AQ (they won't get to the turn with Q9 in all likelihood, probably folding it preflop in fact). In that case it's begrudgingly a fold but ultimately not close.

Since we don't really know what the read is in this spot, ultimately it's probably fairly close, and a fold is certainly not terrible, but I wouldn't fault you for looking him up either. Probably lean towards folding for this big a river shove from a tighter player in general though.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:50 PM..
 
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Fri Nov 09, 2012, 12:55 PM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
UTG+1 and raising AQo is ok.

I am not quite sure what you are trying to achieve with a half pot continuation bet on the flop with A high and a gut shot. Personally I would check here.

Villain calls and the turn brings your miracle card and the nuts. Another half pot bet??? Way too small. I either slow play this or bet about 65-70 cents; with the villain already showing interest I want to grow this pot and hoping to get stacks in.

River pairs the board. I still want to bet for value and again half pot is too small imo. Opponent shoves. Now we are in a predicament. You have bet every street and this looks super strong from your opponent.

I would be tempted to fold without a solid read but although math is not my strong suit I believe it is a call albeit a crying one. Top straight is just too strong to fold. Maybe someone can explain the math and whether the call is */- EV.

Edit: Dave got there before me. Could you please explain what the math is here? Thanks

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:01 PM..
 
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Fri Nov 09, 2012, 01:16 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi top,

Checking the turn to slowplay is not a good idea imo... we turned the nuts and the villain rates to have a fair bit of strong 2nd best hands, or a draw... we want to make sure we get value from this entire range and can't count on him to bet his draws for us. And there are lots of river cards that may be scary to strong 2nd best hands like 2 pair or a set. So I absolutely think betting this turn is essential, and agree with you for sure that a bigger sizing is preferable.

The math of the river looks like this:

We have to call $3.48 into a pot of $6.59, so we're getting a little less than 2-1 on a call. More precisely we need to win the hand ~ 34.6% of the time to break even on a call.

In retrospect it's doubtful vs. a tight player that we are good nearly close to this often, so I'm leaning even more strongly towards a fold.


Quote:
Top straight is just too strong to fold.
It's important not to look at the intrinsic hand value of the top straight, but rather the relative hand value of it against the villain's range of hands. Against a maniac or wild bluffer for example, it's way too strong to fold since there's so many weird hands and bluffs that player type will show up with. Against a super conservative nit, it's a very easy fold since their entire shoving range is full houses.


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Fri Nov 09, 2012, 01:46 PM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks Dave,

I certainly get that poker is about playing your hand (range of hands against better players as you move up) against your opponent's range of hands.

I think here it is very read dependent, even a tight player if he is capable of bluffing can shove here and I think the half pot bets make that move very + EV. Unfortunately you cannot know if that is in the op's arsenal with 18 hands.

How do you calculate the 34.6%? I can get that figure but I think the way I am calculating it is a bit back to front?

6.59 divided by 10.07 X 100 = 65.4. Then subtract 65.4 from 100 = 34.6

I told you math is not my strong point.

Cheers


TC
 
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Fri Nov 09, 2012, 02:42 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
How do you calculate the 34.6%?
You can take the call amount divided by the total final pot after our call. So 3.48 / 10.07 = .3455

You can also work it from the pot odds like this: 6.59/3.48 = 1.89 to 1, so we need to win 1 time in every 2.89 trials to break even at those odds, 1/2.89 = .346


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Fri Nov 09, 2012, 05:54 PM
(#7)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
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Cheers Dave and Tony for some great discussion.

I'm glad I didn't post the outcome of the hand because this was exactly the kind of discussion I was looking for on this hand.

In the end I called his shove, he turned over pockets 10's to give him the house and I got stacked, not to worry. My main question was answered and that was with a player with very little reads on would it have been ok to fold and Dave answered that in his first reply.

Another good thing that I learned from the conversation was by bet-sizing post flop. I C-bet the flop with a half pot bet to continue on with the strength I showed with my pre-flop raise and hoped that by representing the King that came out on the flop my opponent would fold if he didn't have one.

Obviously the turn was a great card for me and this is where it gets interesting. I would have thought that by betting small it would keep my opponent in the pot or even better he would come over the top with worse like a set or two-pair.

Dave suggests betting the turn bigger and I'm curious as to what would be the appropriate size bet here on the turn, 70 - 80% pot?

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Sat Nov 10, 2012, 12:51 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by royalraise85 View Post
Obviously the turn was a great card for me and this is where it gets interesting. I would have thought that by betting small it would keep my opponent in the pot or even better he would come over the top with worse like a set or two-pair.

Dave suggests betting the turn bigger and I'm curious as to what would be the appropriate size bet here on the turn, 70 - 80% pot?

Raiser
Sure, that range is a good sizing. A bit more is ok too. If he's got 2 pair or a set he may come over the top of the bigger bet as well and we can easily get stacks in with the nuts. But the board isn't exactly 2-pair/set friendly either so he may flat call (which he did even for the small bet in this case).


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Sat Nov 10, 2012, 07:18 AM
(#9)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
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Cheers Dave, thank you for the replies, much appreciated.

And thanks also to topthecat, great discussion and it's helped me see something in my game that I haven't noticed before.

Namely not to play on auto-pilot with bet-sizing buttons post-flop and to be a little more creative. Unfortunately an all too easy habit to get into playing ZOOM but a bad habit none the less.

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Sun Nov 11, 2012, 10:15 AM
(#10)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Good hand to debate and thanks to Dave for all the math input.

Cheers,

TC
 

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