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Expected value.

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Expected value. - Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:20 PM
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Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
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Another silly question but one I want to be sure on... Figuring out your pot odds and outs is basically an easy way of working out if a play has postive or negative expected value, right?

If the immediate, effective and/or implied odds are higher than your chance of making your hand then the play with the highest expected value is to call or raise depending on the situation.

Is this right?
 
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Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:47 PM
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Hi Guyguyson!

The way that I look at it when playing (online or live) is that I'll take the pot equity and compare it to my hand equity.

For example, if I have to call 500 into a pot that will be 2k when I put my 500 in, my pot equity is 500/2k = 25%

For my hand equity, I will use how many outs that I have times 2% (unless the opp or me is all in on the flop, in which case I'll use 4% per out as I'm guaranteed to see the turn and river). So, if I have a flush draw only on the flop, I have 9 outs or 18%. If I have a flush draw with 2 overcards to the flop, I have 15 outs or 30%.

EV = hand equity - pot equity

So, if the pot equity is 25%, for me to call, I will need at least 25% equity in my hand which means that I'll need 13 outs (26%) to call.

When the EV is positive, I expect to gain that % of chips from the pot. When the EV is negative, I expect on average to lose that % difference in chips.

Needless to say, I'm always looking to try to find +EV situations when I'm playing and then to take advantage of them, especially if I find a large +EV situation.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Nov 10, 2012, 04:59 PM
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Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
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That makes sense I wasn't sure on how EV and pot odds/outs connected. Also i'm used to doing it via ratios but your method is much easier. Thanks for the advice!

Last edited by Guyguyson; Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:03 PM..
 
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Sat Nov 10, 2012, 05:57 PM
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Hi Guyguyson!

I was playing live for a number of years before I got involved in online play. Due to that, I'm all for anything that I can quickly work out in my head.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Nov 24, 2012, 01:35 PM
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Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
I just read something that's confused me. In phils little green book he workss out breakeven percentage which turns 1/3 to 1/4. This goes against everthing I know about pot odds so is phil wrong or does that just apply when ccalling an all in? Also am I supposed to be adding an extra percent to hand equity when using the method JWK24 posted above? (Read it online somewhere online).

Thanks and sorry about typos trying to write this on a phone.
 
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Sat Nov 24, 2012, 03:24 PM
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Hi Guyguyson!

I haven't read that book, so not sure the situation, etc where it's coming from.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Nov 24, 2012, 03:43 PM
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He uses two situations one where he's calling an all in and another where he's using implied odds. Basically he works out that 25 in to a 75 pot is 3/1 but then accounts for an extra situation making it 4/1. The way he works out break even percentage is BEP equals 1/(3+1) equals 1/4 equals 25 percent for the above scenario and he does the exact same thing for implied odds.
 
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Sat Nov 24, 2012, 04:37 PM
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Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
He uses two scenarios which are as follows.

5000 in pot, post flop, HU, hero and villan both have 2500 villan bets 2500 to make pot 7d00 he then works out the odds are 3/1 then he does his break even percentage thing to work it out to 4/1 hence only needing 25% hand equity to call rather than 34%

Second situation is the same except hero and villan have 5000 chips each, villan bets 2500 so again immediate odds are 3/1 but implied odds make it 4/1 After his BEP formula it ends up being 5/1.

That's literally the two examples in the book and they don't fit what I know about pot odds or the methods I've read else where. The break even percentage thing seems to screw it up.
 
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Sat Nov 24, 2012, 04:51 PM
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If there is 5k already in the pot and both me and opp put 2500 into it, the total pot size is 10k. 2500/10k is 25%

when calculating the equities, I need to use the whole pot value AFTER the chips are in.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Nov 24, 2012, 05:11 PM
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Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
I thought I must of missed something somewhere. Thanks.

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