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10NL 6 Max Overpair vs strong line

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10NL 6 Max Overpair vs strong line - Sun Nov 11, 2012, 11:40 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain 4: 21/12 after 203 hands, AF: 2.7, FCB: 70%, raise CB: 0%

Villain 5: 80/0 after 10 hands, AF: 1.0



From the flop, it seems like we have the best hand most of the time. However, Villain 4 check/raise squeeze shoved. What was most worrying was Villain 5 actually flatting behind, often an indication of great strength.

I was pretty afraid of running into 55, 65, 75, 54, 53 or 88 although 99, TT and A8 could be in their range too which we're crushing. But, judging from the lines they took, I folded.

Is this a fold most of the time??
 
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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:44 PM
(#2)
craig121212's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 246
Against villain 4 I would be getting it in, he is only playing a 25bb stack, so any sort of flop where we can be ahead a fair amount of the time is a decent board to get it in with this player.

Villain 5 I'm not so sure. The sample size is small, but limping or calling 8 out of your first 10 hands is a passive/weak line. I'd really want to know how they played the previous hands post flop, do they stack off with top pair, draws or overcards?

There is a good chance we are ahead here, but without knowing anything about villain 5's postflop play it's a tough spot. Some weak villains could definitely do this with A8 possibly K8, Q8 as well as 99 and TT. Some would even do it with 77 or 66.

I think I'd actually just shove this flop here, we only need about 40% equity in this hand to make it a +ev shove, and i think we have that.
 
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Tue Nov 13, 2012, 10:56 AM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I think we all agree: we aren't worried about villain 4. We are very worried about villain 5. What is so worrisome? a) he is a passive player who has taken an aggressive action and then backed it up with a strong looking overcall. b) he plays a lot of hands, 80% of them, which has a lot of 5x in it especially compared to the other players.

So I think we have three options

1. Move all-in for value and hope player 5 calls with worse often enough. I don't like this option. I think he just has too many 5x type hands. Sure he could call off with 99, but will that be enough of this range to take this line up to this point?

2. Call. We have position, a good hand, and a big pot. If we create a dry side pot we should expect our passive opponent to never bluff into it. We give ourselves the chance to hit a card that slows him down, like an A or K, that reduces the chances of him having a 5, namely a 5, or improving to the nuts on a J. So we can make pretty informed decisions hopefully.

3. Fold. The question with #2 is that, is that all worth the price? I can't quantify that easily. I think calling is, but only because we have just 10 hands on this player. If we had one hundred I would be more trusting of his HUD stats as an absolute guideline to how he plays and would like folding more. But AF really doesn't mean much over 10 hands, so I can't trust that he is that passive. Therefore I like a call but it could definitely be a fold.
 
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Tue Nov 13, 2012, 09:07 PM
(#4)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks guys for the analysis. I tanked till I almost timed out and begrudgingly folded. And so....

Villain 4: A8s
Villain 5: TT

Villain 5 put a wink face after he won. I almost stabbed myself. But I was thinking if I called, our stack will be less than the pot. One more bet will be enough to get us all in. I didn't know what to do if he barreled. Will I be up against a 5x or overpair? Keeps me guessing.

Close one
 

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