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KK early in Tournament

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KK early in Tournament - Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:00 AM
(#1)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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First time posting...

I seem to have a hard time playing KK early in Tournaments a lot more than I feel I should.

In a lot of the ones i play, they are mainly freeroll (my Bankroll is non existent so im trying my hardest to improve it with no RL money risk) and quite often massive fields of unskilled players.

IE : The regular 5-6 daily Bankroll Mob Freeroll is an example. People come into it not from Bankroll Mob to play for the league but for the few $ in the 117 spots it pays. This attracts people who get their password from Facebook and bump the field upto a good 5000 a time.

This is no different than the PSO however the Bankroll Mob can be a bit tougher due to its 5 min levels that forces people to act crazier at the start.

So, im in the normal Bankroll Mob the other day, get given KK about 3 hands in MP and from UTG get a big ALL-IN, i decided to call it and then someone in LP decides to join the fun.

I forget what the board came but the flop came an Ace and UTG picks up the pot and knocks me and JQs out of it with his A6o making a simple Pair of Aces.


Then early today in the 100K Freeroll I get dealt KK in LP with 1 limper, i decide to raise, he goes all in so i decide to call thinking there is no way i could be up against AA, maybe AT+ or TT, JJ, QQ but who knows it could have been a bear trap.

He flips over A2h, again i forget the exact board but the flop comes with no hearts but another Ace, he doesnt need to improve past that and busts me out with his Paired Ace again.


First time I thought it could have been a fluke, second time I am thinking that there is something seriously wrong with my strategy at this point and wouldnt mind some advise.


I know there are factors in a MTT that do not exist in a Cash Game since if you make the RIGHT call but get the WRONG results you can always rebuy and overall the luck balances out and the RIGHT results come true.

In a MTT however the RIGHT call and the WRONG result early on can mean that all of the really good calls you were destined to make getting you a good placing later on can now never happen.




A couple of things I wouldnt mind some thoughts on

1 : What are the exact probabilities for Ax vs KK preflop?
2 : How cautious should I be with KK preflop with action to me that could knock me out?

I know it can depend on the read but early on and considering the vast variance in Fish : Skill, the read is extremely hard.

I really want to see a flop raised up with KK where I can try and judge if my KK is holding up. I really dont like that any fish can just throw his chips at me with Ax and luck out on the board against a much stronger hand and knock me out.

What are the thoughts on this?
 
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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:22 AM
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Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
KK is a hand I want to raise, re-raise and shove all in pre flop if I have to at any stage of a tournament. Never be trappy with it, you are well ahead with this hand and only AA has us crushed. Against AKs we are 65% favourite, against a raggy A we are roughly 70% and against any other pocket pair we are 80% favourite.

Yes you will lose against a raggy A 3 times in 10 but that will be your opponents fault. Where KK becomes weaker is on the flop, turn and river so it's wise to raise when we know we're ahead.

If we do see a flop with KK then we have to be wary of the board texture. I play a lot of limit and can't raise raggy A's out of the pot. We should therefore be prepared to bin our KK if we think our opponent(s) have an A in their hand.

Losing 2 or 3 hands is not a good sample, you really need to be having 100's or 1,000's of cases to evaluate.
 
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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:09 AM
(#3)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
KK is a hand I want to raise, re-raise and shove all in pre flop if I have to at any stage of a tournament. Never be trappy with it, you are well ahead with this hand and only AA has us crushed. Against AKs we are 65% favourite, against a raggy A we are roughly 70% and against any other pocket pair we are 80% favourite.
Phew, well i didn't know the exact probabilities but thought 70% sounded like the right number when you said it

Yes you will lose against a raggy A 3 times in 10 but that will be your opponents fault. Where KK becomes weaker is on the flop, turn and river so it's wise to raise when we know we're ahead.

So.. my initial concept of "Be Strong, Cowboys kick ass" really is fine here just that i have hit some bad luck with them?

There is just something nasty about getting knocked out within the first blind on the best hand. I never have this problem with AA, im committed and if i get outdrawn then thats poker and i can live with it, no way i am laying down AA just because its early in the event.

KK however, since these fish-donkey freerollers often go All-In with "Any-Ace" its nice to know im only behind 30% of the time which is good odds overall but doesn't feel good right at the start


Thanks for the reassurance
 
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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:25 AM
(#4)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
It doesn't help losing with them but you really need a very large sample. I just lost AA to a player who called a 4 bet pre flop with 76s. It's more frustrating in limit as they call with hands like these and then chase to the river with any gutshot.

I'm unsure how to filter Holdem Manager 2 for KK only but I've had big pairs, KK, QQ, JJ 3,407 times and have won 70% of times with them. It will probably be different if I was playing NL but 70% sounds about right.
 
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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:36 AM
(#5)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Great

Its refreshing sometimes to know your not on your own with BB from the flop.

I don't mind it as much if i lose from being outplayed, you can take something away from that. Say someone convinces you they have a better hand and you muck the better one or they convince you their hand is weak and you end up getting busted by a better one. That kind of play hones your game and you get better at reading people from it (or at least adjusting your caution level).

What can hurt is that unpredictable loose level of play that encourages bad moves against your good moves where the luck sides with them.

It is an odds based game where the skill comes at determining what odds you are on to win or possibility to win vs the odds your opponent has in the dark. Thats the best part about poker.

With any odds based game, luck sometimes doesnt go your way.

We have all had that 90% win chance at turn flip to a 0% chance once the river is laid down, i am hoping that beats like this will thicken my skin and allow me to let them roll off me so i just get on with my game which it seems to be doing, just made me question if i was right.

I am glad to say your reassurance that i was right is what i needed to hear.
 
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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 10:14 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,833
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**moved to better fitting forum since member has a tourney strategy ? JWK24**


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