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5nl Zoom - Trouble with AA #2

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5nl Zoom - Trouble with AA #2 - Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:16 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Another high SPR pot with an overpair, This player is unknown although he was playing an uconventional stack and was single tabling.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I raise preflop and the villain calls from the SB, the flop comes down pretty good for AA and he leads in to me for pot. Although I could proceed cautiously and just call as I have position I deicided to raise for value as I thought that worse hands such as TP would call.

I'm getting 1.7-1 so need around 37% equity, I pokerstoved my estimated range for him. Against this range I have nearly 41% equity do the call is +EV. However is my range assesment okay or would he play TPTK differently?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.985% 37.94% 03.04% 6761 542.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 59.015% 55.97% 03.04% 9974 542.50 { KK+, TT, 44, AKs, KTs, AKo }


Thanks for any help

Oliver


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Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:38 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
However is my range assesment okay or would he play TPTK differently?
Here's the thing... we have no idea. No reads, just a probable fishy player sitting with less than a full stack and 1 tabling. But that doesn't really help... is possible he would never stack off without a set here. It's also possible he would mash it off as light as KJ.

Ultimately I prefer not to force the action in a spot like this with so many unknown variables. Sure we can get value from top pair when we raise, but if we flat his strongly sized lead we're not going to lose that value, he's going to continue on the turn and if he slows down with KQ type hands we have position so we aren't going to lose a street of value, we can still bet when he checks.

Given all the info it's probably ok to stack off here but very marginally so imo, I think we do better over all by flatting in position and keeping all his weak stabs like JT in (which may well fold to a raise), KJ (in case he's just "betting to see where he's at"), or any random bluffs in his range. When we raise and he jams, his range is much stronger and if I don't welcome a 3b (which I really don't without reads here) then don't want to set up to face one so much.


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