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$1.10 MTT Exit Hand 1

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$1.10 MTT Exit Hand 1 - Tue Nov 13, 2012, 05:52 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I exited very early from this MTT after about two orbits - one of two $1.10 MTTs (3k chipstack 15min blinds) that I played yesterday - but would like some thoughts on this exit hand.

Only 11 hands on the opponent - all in this tourney - but their stats were 90/27 so far - so they looked loose / bad but maybe too early to really judge - I don't think I paid too much attention to the stats at the time.



My own thoughts looking at this the day after are that I should probably have bet bigger on the flop to get a chance to get all the money in on the turn any time when the opponent is willing to continue - if my maths is right I think two pot sized bets would have just about achieved this. Instead as played I did get all-in on the river with 3 half-pot sized bets.

Assuming (despite their stats) a strong hand for the opponents preflop UTG 3x raise to 120 and call of my reraise to 360, if the opponent is going to call at all on this flop, are they almost as likely to call a pot sized bet as a half pot or 2/3rds pot bet?

They would surely call with AA/KK/AQ, but maybe or maybe not with hands like 88-JJ or AT/AK/AJ.

When they do call on the flop I assume they have something in hand or have hit a part of the board - though not strongly unless they have the other queenie - and I wanted to get all the money in still, which I do on the river.

The river card is a bad card when they hold this specific hand, but having called twice already I think they can have a lot of hands in their range that will pay me off - and the pot is already huge - so am I correct to bet this river for value on the times I get paid off by AA/KK/AQ/JJ/TT - maybe even KQ/KJ/KT/QJ/QT/JT - or was I overestimating their range of potential holdings given previous, (particularly the preflop) action? Should I have slowed down on this river card and just check called? That would possibly leave me alive in the tourney IF they check down the river, but I cannot see me check/folding so I'm not sure there is much point in my checking here.

Any thoughts welcome.

Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 06:07 AM..
 
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Tue Nov 13, 2012, 07:12 AM
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Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hey Ed, here's my two cents.

The utg villain raised 5x by the way, not 3x, then called your solid reraise. I see a lot of maniacs in the $2.50 180 mans. It might be hard to put him on a range if he has played nearly every hand, but he obviously likes his hand. Pocket pairs and AK seem likely holdings.

You flop top set and are out of position. I like to lead with a larger than expected donk bet in these spots. It is unexpected, good players might view it as a sign of a steal attempt and re-raise you. Maniacs on the other hand won't even notice. If he liked his hand preflop, he will often want to continue with it regardless of what the board is showing. I would have made a pot sized bet on the flop and hope he reraises. Hopefully we can get all in on the turn.

The river is not a great card for us since AK is right in his range for how he has played. I'm not sure of the best line on the river. However, so early in a tourney I would probably be looking at check-calling.

GL!

Roland GTX
 
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Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:34 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi EdinFreeman,

I think you've played the hand pretty well. I would probably stick with a 60% CBet on the flop (so maybe a little bigger) just since we are so strong and don't want to lose a customer. Our normal CBet gives the villan a chance to float us or try and attack a cbet, although I see your point about him calling anything. I would probably bet bigger on the turn. Once he calls the flop I think we have a customer, I would raise maybe 70%-80% of the pot here, so like 1100-1200. and make a easy reshove for him or a small shove for us on the river.

Once the river hits I think you're right in betting again for value, this guy will show up with one pair more than AK i think.

To be honest my initial reaction watching the hand after reading he was 90/27 was almost to 3bet shove it. When this villan makes it 6x UTG I think he's really strong (atleast in his mind) and loose so very likely to call allin even for 150BBs more. But 150BBs is probably a little too many and not good if he's gonna fold too many of his middle or small pairs.

Unlucky
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 

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