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How many outs do you count here?

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How many outs do you count here? - Wed Nov 14, 2012, 05:37 AM
(#1)
Beginner358's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 28
Hi all,

let's say you hold on . I assume that my opponent has a big pair.
How many outs do I have when he has AA? How many if he has KK?

Thanks
 
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Wed Nov 14, 2012, 06:26 AM
(#2)
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
4 Jacks for a straight, 2 tens for a full house = 6 outs.

This is the same regardless of whether he's holding aces or kings, if he was on a flush draw you would have to discount the jack of clubs giving you 5 outs.

Last edited by Guyguyson; Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:43 AM..
 
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the light turned on - Sun Dec 09, 2012, 06:10 PM
(#3)
NightPheonix's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 12
So that is how you count outs. they were talked about in the lesson but I couldn't find any place that said this is how you count out and then explained it. thank You
 
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Sun Dec 09, 2012, 06:29 PM
(#4)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
u got 6 outs 4 jacks and 2 tens
 
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Sun Dec 09, 2012, 06:33 PM
(#5)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
You've got to count realistic outs. If some of our outs may give to a better hand then you have to discard them unless we've any other information which suggests otherwise.
 
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Sun Dec 09, 2012, 07:52 PM
(#6)
citrusfreak's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 20
If you know for a fact your opponent has AA or KK then yes you have 6 outs the 2 10s and 4 Js as mentioned previously. I would say that you can't completely remove AKs from his range particularly AcKc as most players will play this hand just as aggressively. In fact I believe the worst hand your opponent could have in this spot would be JJ as that leaves you drawing dead to a 10. followed by QQ which is less likely because you have a Q but also removes all but the 10s as pure outs because a Q still loses for you and a J is a split. and of course TT which is the least likely of holdings given there is only one combination of it but has you crushed and is also played very often as a premium pair pre-flop.

so on this board against his range which could include TT+ AKs

your looking at being about a 4:1 dog with roughly 20% equity

so you need to be getting more than 4:1 from the pot to take on his entire probable range.


if you were looking for a simple answer sorry I botched that but I really think a wider hand range for your villain was required just to keep you thinking about hands in terms or ranges instead of absolutes.

if you got it all in on the turn and that is how you know he had AA or KK or had some other read not included in this post then yes 6 outs is what you have. However before the cards are flipped on their backs you need to consider his entire possible/probable range.

citrusfreak
 
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Fri Dec 14, 2012, 06:27 PM
(#7)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beginner358 View Post
Hi all,

let's say you hold on . I assume that my opponent has a big pair.
How many outs do I have when he has AA? How many if he has KK?

Thanks
With that specific hand example, the odds are as follows:

You hold
Board is

Here are different hands your opps can have.

Opp1 has (the club is the only relevant one here)
Opp2 has (no club)
Opp3 has (the club again being relevant)
Opp4 has (no club)

Opp1 has 86.58%
Opp2 has 86.38%
Opp3 has 86.23%
Opp4 has 86.44%

So overall in this spot to any AA or KK you are behind by 86% rounded down no matter if they have a club in their hand or not.
 
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Fri Dec 14, 2012, 06:55 PM
(#8)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
On that board, clubs only become relevant if the opp holds two clubs, which is impossible with a pair.
 
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Sat Dec 15, 2012, 01:55 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
As an extra piece of advice, don't make a habit of chasing straights and flushes on a paired board, because you will sometimes make your hand and lose to a full house or quads.
I see it all the time on microstakes games. Someone flops an OESD or flush draw on a paired flop like 998, and ends up calling a shove on the river when the flush/straight completes. It never occurs to them that you could have pocket eights and they were effectively drawing dead all along.
 
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Sat Dec 15, 2012, 02:50 PM
(#10)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
As an extra piece of advice, don't make a habit of chasing straights and flushes on a paired board, because you will sometimes make your hand and lose to a full house or quads.
I see it all the time on microstakes games. Someone flops an OESD or flush draw on a paired flop like 998, and ends up calling a shove on the river when the flush/straight completes. It never occurs to them that you could have pocket eights and they were effectively drawing dead all along.
Agreed ... Only if you get the right price or the right implied pot odds
 
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Sun Dec 16, 2012, 05:55 AM
(#11)
squaddeuce's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 2
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
Opp1 has (the club is the only relevant one here)
Opp2 has (no club)
Opp3 has (the club again being relevant)
Opp4 has (no club)

Opp1 has 86.58%
Opp2 has 86.38%
Opp3 has 86.23%
Opp4 has 86.44%
Those percentages don't make sense...
They equate to:

1: 38.0952
2: 38.0072
3: 37.9412
4: 38.0336

cards out of the remaining 44 in the deck, all close enough to 38 (leaving you 6 outs), but 38 ÷ 44 isn't any of those, it's 86.36%. 39 would be 88.63%, and 37 is 84.09%.
There may be a slight glitch in whatever software you used. I use the one at http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tool...r/texas-holdem and it's pretty good. It gave me exactly 86.36% for all of those examples.

One club in your opponent's hand doesn't make a difference because there are only two clubs on the board, not three.
 
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Sun Dec 16, 2012, 06:37 AM
(#12)
squaddeuce's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 2
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by citrusfreak View Post
In fact I believe the worst hand your opponent could have in this spot would be JJ as that leaves you drawing dead to a 10.
I'm a little confused what you mean by that. Drawing dead obviously means you cannot win the hand, but I've always understood "drawing dead to" a card to mean that the card you want to hit will still lose you the hand, for example:
vs on
You are drawing dead to a ten because it will give you a straight, but your opponent already has a flush.

But with vs on
You are drawing dead to a queen (two pair vs straight) or a jack (straight vs full house) but a ten will win you the hand (full house vs two pair), so I would probably say you are "drawing only to a ten," or "drawing dead except for a ten," when you might think a queen or jack would be good too, but they're not.

So does "drawing dead to" something usually mean the opposite of what I thought?
 
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Tue Dec 18, 2012, 03:12 AM
(#13)
citrusfreak's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by squaddeuce View Post
I'm a little confused what you mean by that. Drawing dead obviously means you cannot win the hand, but I've always understood "drawing dead to" a card to mean that the card you want to hit will still lose you the hand, for example:
vs on
You are drawing dead to a ten because it will give you a straight, but your opponent already has a flush.

But with vs on
You are drawing dead to a queen (two pair vs straight) or a jack (straight vs full house) but a ten will win you the hand (full house vs two pair), so I would probably say you are "drawing only to a ten," or "drawing dead except for a ten," when you might think a queen or jack would be good too, but they're not.

So does "drawing dead to" something usually mean the opposite of what I thought?
No No your right. I guess I just chose a phrasing that was not ideal. Drawing dead does mean you cannot win. What I was implying is, in that particular case, you can only win with a ten. Any other card and you are a dead duck. So when your opp has that particular holding you are in very bad shape. I guess you could say nearly drawing dead with a 10 being the only card that wins it for you.

Sorry if I confused you with my phrasing.
 
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Wed Dec 19, 2012, 10:16 AM
(#14)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
They are correct

Try tapping them into the PSO Odds calculator
 

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