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PSO leagues late stages part 2

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PSO leagues late stages part 2 - Sun Nov 18, 2012, 09:08 AM
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unnamedone12's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 14
This is the hand right after the one in the previous post.

So I got that free flop, having left around 8 BB, and was thinking that with a shove I would either take the pot uncontested or if I get paid I could hit my draw and still win.
What do you think ?

Thanks.
 
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Sun Nov 18, 2012, 12:35 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi unnamedone12!

With 9T, I'm happy to see a free flop in the BB. I flop an OESD and here is where I would want to look at the numbers and look at the reads that I have on my opps.
Would the opps fold to a shove and what are my odds if I shove or call a shove?

If one opp calls a shove by me or I call a shove by them, then it will cost me 3850 chips into a pot of 10650, which is 36.2%. My OESD has 8 outs and since I'd be guaranteed to see both streets, each one is worth 4% equity. Therefore my hand has 32% equity. Since my pot equity is higher than my hand equity, I would expect to lose chips each and every time on average when I'm up against one opp (the most likely scenario).

If I'm up against 2 opps, then my pot equity would be 3850 into 14500 (26.2%). If I could guarantee 2 others in the pot, it would be a positive play to call.

Since the only scenario that is a negative for me is to be in the pot against one opponent, I'm going to check the flop here and fold if one opp shoves or call if multiple opps are in the pot with a bet larger than my stack.
The only way that I would shove here is if I could guarantee that everyone will fold the overwhelming majority of the time (and opp reads were not provided), as I would need this to be the case in order to make up for the chips that I expect to lose when called by 1 opp.

If an opp bets less, then I'll have to re-evaluate the pot odds and if I would not be all-in, then I'd also have to use 2% per out for my eight outs as I would not be guaranteed to see both streets.
Also, with this being a league game, I'm always going to opt for the conservative route, so that I can get more and more league points.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Nov 18, 2012, 03:01 PM
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unnamedone12's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 14
thanks for the reply John
 

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