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PSO league late stages

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PSO league late stages - Sun Nov 18, 2012, 08:51 PM
(#1)
unnamedone12's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 14
Hello. We are down to the last 45 or so, with me having a pretty small stack, and this happens :

What do you think ? Should have shoved first, maybe pre flop ? Fold ?

Thank you.
 
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Sun Nov 18, 2012, 11:25 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi unnamedone12!

With this being late in a league game, I'm not as much going to be as concerned about getting smaller amounts of points. I'm looking to accumulate chips for a final table run.

With 11BB and being out of position, when UTG+1 min raises, if I'm going to play the hand, I want to raise. My normal raise would be to between 3X their bet and a pot-sized raise, except that is over 1/2 my stack. Therefore, based on a read of the opp, I'm going to either shove preflop or fold.

Calling a raise from the blinds and then checking the flop is a large chip leak and I avoid doing this whenever possible. If I do call a raise, then I'm going to basically bet any flop and make my standard 1/2 pot value bet, but I'd much rather raise/fold preflop.

The flop gives me two overcards and a flush draw. I need to lead out here, as I don't want an opp to make a bet that will price me out of the flop. If I make my std 1/2 pot value bet, then I WILL be priced in, to get all my chips in on a raise.

If I call the 72k by the opp, the pot will be 225600, so my pot equity would be 31.9%.
If I shove my 113,392 in first, then if I'm called by 1 opp, its that amount into a pot of 308394 (36.8%).
If I make a 1/2 pot bet (40.8k) then have to call a shove, I have to put 72592 into a pot of 308394 (23.5%)

I have 9 outs to the flush (18% equity to the turn and 36% if I am all in).

Calling the 72k only allows me 1 street of value, so it is a -13.9%EV play, so I don't want to do that.
Shoving is a -0.8%EV play, so while it's a marginally bad play, it's an option.
Leading then calling a raise is a +12.5%EV play, which is the best option if I see the flop.

However, in this type of situation, I'd rather 3-bet shove my 11BB preflop and put the pressure on the opp to have to make a call, especially if the opp would fold some of the time (where I pick up free chips).

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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