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ICM decision on final table

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ICM decision on final table - Tue Nov 20, 2012, 04:57 AM
(#1)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778


Villian 5 was VPiP 31 PFR 31 in 52 hands and always min raised, he had never shoved before. I guessed I was crushed but I'm calling against him if it's just me and him.

Villian 6 was VPiP 31 PFR 14 in 64 hands when he insta calls it changes my thinking. I'm thinking my A9o is crushed in this spot even though in a cash game it's a call. By folding I moved up a payout place and had another chance to get my chips in again. As it happened I won the next hand with T4o.

This is not a bubble situation but also not as clear as it seems.

Did I made the correct fold?

Edit, this is a 45 man 50c STT with top 7 paid. We're 11 hands into the final table, I was completely card dead until now and the 3 players to act before me were pretty active with at least 1 of the 3 raising in every hand. I desperately wanted to get my chips in but had to pick the right spot.

Last edited by Ovalman; Tue Nov 20, 2012 at 05:04 AM.. Reason: added last paragraph
 
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Tue Nov 20, 2012, 11:28 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**


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Tue Nov 20, 2012, 01:28 PM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
here's my opinion (w/o checking icm) I think by icm its a call, with only 1 bb behind, and half that being gone the next hand, you have a good price to call it off, BUT looking at it from a human perspective, I think it's a fold. guy jams, shorty calls off, screams your prolly crushed here. and at this buy in level you might move up more than 1 spot even if you folded the next hand too. you'll then get to see 6 more hands for free, and you never know what will transpire elswhere on the table in those 6 hands.
I made final 4 in a mtt and was by FAR the short stack. 4th had assured me $300. i'm utg with A4s and decide to pass with 5 bb. against who I knew to be some pretty aggressive opps. the first middle stack to my left jams and the other middle stack calls it off. woohoo !! next, much to my suprize, the chip leader (by a long long ways) also calls with K10o. low and behold the chip leader flops the freakin nut staight and knocks the two middle stacks out. kaaaaching!!!! I went from 300 to $600 by just passing on one hand icm would prolly say I should've jammed.
I think icm is a great tool but your mind is an even better one. just cause icm says shove atc, doesn't mean you necessarily should.
anyway there's my 2¢


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Tue Nov 20, 2012, 07:03 PM
(#4)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Ovalman,

So on a 45man we are just inside the bubble here. ICM in this situation really won't differ much from chip equity. There's now no bubble jump and most of the money is at the top spots where you need to accquire chips to get to.

You absolutely have to go with A9o here.

If you fold you have 1395 chips left. If you call and win you will have 8910 chips and be 3rd in chips. 6:1 on our money.

The up side of folding is a chance (probably less than 50%) to get a small money bump to 6th. up side of calling ... 3rd in chips and possiblity to win the whole thing.

Gotta Gamble
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Wed Nov 21, 2012, 06:51 PM
(#5)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I've been thinking about this hand a lot, I tried using an ICM calculator but I don't fully understand how to use it.

I'm still not sure I made a bad decision on this hand. I'm 20% to win the hand and my odds are very close to correct to make this call. I think his all in is very relevant in this case. He's never made this move in 50 hands and while it's a very small sample, I think it narrows his range a lot.

I'm only starting to get to know the ICM concept but I think this info coupled with the other villians shove was a correct fold in my case. I understand fully your point about calling as it would set us up for the win but I think I made the correct fold. It's a unique situation, something I rarely come across but I feel I called it right in this case, even if it was marginal.

In any case, I don't think it's as clear as it first seems.
 

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