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Micro Millions event 64 Too Loose ??

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Micro Millions event 64 Too Loose ?? - Thu Nov 22, 2012, 07:11 AM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
This hand is from MM 64.
I don't have any reads as I normally play while having more than a couple of Ales and watching TV.
I base most of my decisions on Position, Starting stack, BB left and risk of ruin (Thanks to Annie Duke)
I figured my risk of ruin is pretty high so i decide to try and steal, hoping to have 2 live cards with a bit of fold equity.
I thought my shove would put a serious dent in anybody willing to call and lose.What do you think?

 
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Thu Nov 22, 2012, 08:11 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Hi chuckkky!

With 68 from the blind, while I like the idea of possibly squeezing here, I don't think that 4.8k chips is enough to make it worthwhile (unless all three opps are total nits). The reason that I say this is that I can only make about a pot-sized raise, so it's a small enough bet with three opps left to act (lowers my fold equity)... someone will most likely call it, maybe multiple opps and while 68 does have a back-up plan, I don't like it's chances in a multiway pot.
Against one top 10% hand (if that's the opp's range, reads not provided) has just under 30% equity, but my pot odds (4817 into pot of 13424, which is 35.9%). This gives a -5%EV play each time one player calls me... which is almost bound to happen with three opps yet to act and will get worse for me if multiple call.

Due to this, I'm going to pass on trying to squeeze here and look for a spot to shove when I'm IN position, have a better hand or can be assured of being up against only one opponent.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Nov 23, 2012, 05:22 PM
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chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Thanks JWK
I think Trumpinjoe made me do it.
I remember a post were someone asked what had the most equity against pocket aces and Joe come up with 67suited. Well 68 off suite has to be almost as good right
Anyway thanks for your help, your right it probably was a little bit of a maniac moment, but if it did work or I sucked out I would have a lot of chips and prob a lot of notes on me from others.
While others are putting notes on me I am putting notes on them that say (seen me squeeze 68os allin with short stack from BB)

Thanks
 
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Fri Nov 23, 2012, 06:19 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Chuckkky,

If I had another 4-5k in my stack, then I think a squeeze try here (if the opps had shown that they could fold) would be a better time to try it.

John


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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