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How to spot a set?

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How to spot a set? - Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:11 AM
(#1)
Beginner358's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 28
Yesterday I had AA in the BB. One player from UTG raised to 4 BB. Everybody folded to me and I just called.

Flop is K37, no flushdraws. I check, he bets half the pot and I raise. He moves all-in. I call, he shows 77.

How can I spot a set like this.
 
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Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:17 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,028
(Community Coordinator)
Hi Beginner358,

It would be much better to raise preflop rather than flat call.

Why give your opponents a cheap flop with such a big hand?

Slow-playing yor aces here got you into trouble when your opponent saw the flop cheaply and hit a very strong made hand on the flop.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:24 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Beginner358!

I agree 100% with raiser. I'm never going to just call with aces preflop. Slowplaying them will lead to nothing but problems. I would raise to 3X their bet and if they 4-bet me, I'm happy to 5-bet back at them.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Nov 27, 2012, 03:41 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Riaing pre would have made this pot easier to play, as it should help you narrow villain's range. Villain would often fold pre, so you don't get much value, but that's better than losing your stack because you don't know where you're at. If he does call with his weak pair, then he'll miss most flops and your c-bet will take it down. If he raises a dry flop, then you have a pretty good idea he got lucky.

Getting away from an overpair versus a set is a crucial skill to develop if you really want to crush the lowest stakes, as set-mining nits are incredibly common. Not paying them off when they hit will save you a fortune.
In this hand, you check-raised the flop, signifying a monster. When villain shoves after you showed strength, he usually has a set on this board, unless he's a maniac, or a fish that will get it in with QQ-TT.

A more common spot is where you raised with a big pair in EP and picked up an MP/LP caller. If they raise your c-bet, then once again a set or 2 pair is a possibility. I don't know if you have a HUD, but one stat I use for this situation is "raise flop %". If a villain only raises on the flop about 7% of the time, he's never doing it with a draw. He always has two pairs or better, so you can fold a one pair hand. If villain raises flops more often (like 10-15%) then he does it with draws too, so you can proceed with the hand.
 
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Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:12 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
How to spot a set:

Step 1) Consider what your opponent thinks you have

Step 2) Consider what range of hands your opponent probably has. Make sure to include in your analysis all of their actions, as well as your conclusions from step 1.

Step 3) Through the process of elimination deduce their most likely holding(s). If the only type of hand that comes to mind is a set, it is likely that is what they have(assuming you have done steps 1-2 correctly). A common example of how step 3 will go down if your opponent has a set and you figure it out:

Quote:
The voice in the back of your head is screaming 'SET! He has a set!!!')

Simple as that.
 
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Wed Nov 28, 2012, 11:51 AM
(#6)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hi beginner, spotting a set is one of the hardest things to spot in poker with the exception of quads.

Spotting sets are read dependent on the player.

You have to consider all actions before and after your turn to act.

As some one says set mining , especaily at low level buyins is very common.

I find even if i raise 10x the BB at micros, someone will still call you with a lot less, as they have less understanding off the game.


I find it sometimes easier to see the flop, then ask myself how strong my hand is compared to the flop.
Then consider all the options of the reads I have on this player.

e.g is he loose and may of hit two pair.

is he/she Tight and theres no way they have any of that
unless they are set mining or have over pair to the board etc.

Consider every possible play and hand.

All said and done if you have uncertainly and its cheaper to fold than stack off, and your not pot committed, consider the fold theres always the next hand for maybe a better spot.
 

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