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2NL FR Zoom Top pair facing CR all in

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2NL FR Zoom Top pair facing CR all in - Sun Dec 02, 2012, 10:56 AM
(#1)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745
The all in villain is from Singapore and a check raise all in like this looks like a crazy going mad with a draw, I called and they had A4h, is it correct to take the flip or not?
Pokerstove says I am a 55% favourite.



Thanks.
 
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Mon Dec 03, 2012, 10:38 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Rex,

Playing for your stack as a 55% favorite with an overlay from the pot is always +EV. The problem here though is that you're not even close to a favorite against his range. You have to give him bigger kings, 2 pair, sets as well as draws. While he may be draw heavy here the hands that are crushing you swing the equity in his favor.


Board: Kh Jh 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.586% 30.11% 05.47% 18186 3304.50 { KsTs }
Hand 1: 64.414% 58.94% 05.47% 35595 3304.50 { JJ, 88, AKs, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs+, QTs, Qh9h, Qh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 8h6h, AKo, KTo+, QTo }


Against this range you're a 64-36 dog roughly. If We remove all combos of AK and JJ saying he would never ever flat these pre (just for arguments sake, in practice not true), you're still roughly a 60-40 dog.

If he's on ONLY draws and never anything else, then getting it in here is +EV. It's not likely that this is the case though.


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