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hand evaluation required - Mon Dec 03, 2012, 12:32 PM
(#1)
kk2106's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 8
So planning to use poker school online to post a lot of hands for evaluation to improve my game..
here goes the 1st hand:
15$ 180m sng middle stages of the tourney.. With the little information that i have on sb he seems to be a pretty tight player.. Not too sure about my fold there.. Probably just wanted to avoid flips here..

 
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Mon Dec 03, 2012, 01:16 PM
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Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
I'm sure someone will give you better advice but usually when someones sitting on a 10bb stack with antes in effect they are likely going to shove with any ace, any pocket pair, any broadway and probably suited connectors.

TT vs that kind of range is better than a coinflip.

Edit: Looked at your post count and assumed you were new to the game so I thought I would comment on the range but if you're rolled for $15 sngs I doubt thats the case you're probably fully aware of shoving ranges based on stack size. Elraziels advice is perfect for the situation as a whole.

Last edited by Guyguyson; Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:19 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 03, 2012, 01:27 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**


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Good fold - Mon Dec 03, 2012, 01:56 PM
(#4)
elraziel's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4
The best decision here really depends on the stats Villain 5 & 8, but fold is the best decision most of the time. You have 2 possibilities here: fold or shove. Calling is out of the question here. Guyguyson is quite right about the range of Villain 5, but only if we talk about un-opened pot. With raise from UTG, if V5 was a good player (obviously he is not), you are coin-flipping or you are in really bed shape. Even if you have some information about V5, that he is capable of doing such stupid moves like here, you still have to take V8 into consideration. If V8 is a good/regular player, AQo is probably a bottom of his range and probably the only opening hand which he would be willing to fold after your shove. Of course if you see that V8 opens 40% of his hands, you can easily shove here, but in general fold is good decision. You have still 20BB and it's better to wait for better spot.
Of course if there would not be raise from V8, it's obv. auto call
 
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Mon Dec 03, 2012, 03:10 PM
(#5)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi kk2106


Interesting spot we got ourselves into here huh!

elraziel summed this spot up pretty nicely bit here's my take on it.

Interesting spot we got ourselves into here huh!

Do we have any information on the original raiser?
Without reads in this spot I would fold and here's why...

Firstly the UTG 3x raise, when villains 3x their hands their range tends to be a lot stronger than it is when they raise say to 2.5x.

If UTG has been on the aggressive side and the SB was a tag/weak player then I'm re shoving this hand all day.

Without reads it's one of them spots where we have to make one of them reluctant but good folds.

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Mon Dec 03, 2012, 05:15 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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On the minimal info you give here TT is an insta-muck in my opinion.

WHY?

With minimal info, you have to pretty much assume opponents will do what is "right" in a given situation. Assuming anything else without info to back up that guess is simply wishful thinking.

Essentially it boils down to the fact that you have to think UTG is pretty strong here to raise into this many short stacks and re-steal stacks, especially for a larger type standard 3x amount. He is much more likely to see a 3bet or shove at this particular table, and would have to FOLD a lite raise much more often from UTG. Why make a biggish type raise if you are going to be forced to fold a lot? Thus a tight-ish range would be "reasonable" here.

The info you give is that SB is "pretty tight". If we assume the UTG is pretty snug to open raise here, then we gotta assume the SB knows this. That means the SB is going to have to feel his stack size is not going to carry much fold equity versus the UTG raiser. This means SB is probably pretty strong too given the info we have to work with.

At worse, my personal estimate would be the UTG is raising an 18 to 20% total open raise range (to keep pressure on the table he might be raising a bit on the loose side like this), but being that he is UTG he is likely no more than around 6% or so (about the top third of his total range).

SB has to pretty much assume the overlay UTG would be getting necessitates a CALL if he jams, thus this means SB pretty much has to be shoving for value to be "reasonable" (we lack info to say he'd make a mistake, remember?). As he needs about 45% equity to break even, if we assume SB sees the UTG raise the same way WE do (again, reasonable, since we have no other info), he is at max on about an 8.5% shove range here.

Versus an 8.5% shove range, we are +eV with TT, but we are surely NOT folding out UTG 100% of the time. With a CALL of a re-shove by us from UTG's 6% range, we are needing about 40% equity to break even, and we'd have only about 31%. this means whatever % of the time UTG will CALL a shove by us, we would be firmly in -eV territory.

We do carry a good bit of fold equity versus the initial raiser, and we might figure to fold out about half of a 6% open raise range here. Still, running the complex calcs shows me a jam is about -675 cEV for us here, and given our position as the 2nd stack at the table, on a solid stack size for the blinds, our tEV to shove is far worse.

So this is really an insta muck with TT unless we have info we can us to WIDEN these ranges quite a bit, or unless the stack sizes make raise/folding a LOT more plausible.

Last edited by JDean; Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 05:24 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 04, 2012, 02:04 PM
(#7)
kk2106's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 8
Thanx guys for all the replies.. Was really helpful and informative.. Hopefully this is the 1st of the many hand evaluations that I'll be posting..
Cheers..
 

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