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easy fold

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easy fold - Wed Dec 05, 2012, 04:51 PM
(#1)
STOCKY8A's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 39
BronzeStar
i am paying off too many hand like this one i just cannot fold
 
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Wed Dec 05, 2012, 09:10 PM
(#2)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Stocky,

With reads the decisions you should make will change but against an unknown these are my thoughts...

Pre flop you 3 bet 2.5X the initial raise, I actually don't like 3 betting here as I think you will be put in a bad spot if 4 bet. If he makes a 4 bet his range is quite strong and I don't like 5 betting with the aim of getting it in, as I think his range for doing so will have us crushed. Also if you were to get 4 bet and call you have to play OOP in a bloated pot with a hand that will see overcards a reasonable amount of the time, thus making it a very hard hand to play profitably post flop. Therefore I prefer a call preflop.

As played I think you were right to lead the flop, he can call with lots of worse hands, TP, 2 pair, pair + draws. He'll also call with some better hands as well, but value bets cannot be perfect.

The turn is a pretty bad card for you and I think you recognised this and proceeded to check, the villain makes a reasonable sized bet which represents strength. Here I think you should take a minute to reel through the action and think about what he would do this with that you beat....

You 3 bet pre flop he called; you then led a very co-ordinated flop which he proceed to call. The turn completes one of the main draws and he then bets nearly 60% pot.

Would he bet here with one pair?

I don’t think he bets one pair here, he too would recognise the bad board and will likely want to get to showdown as cheap as possible.

Would he bet with 2 pair?

Again I don’t think he would, he’ll recognise that the 9 is a bad card for his hand and given the previous action probably would like to see a showdown.

Would he bet a better set? Maybe... although even if he does bet a set you're only beating 99, which is an unlikely holding for him.

Would he bet a straight? YES!

Would he bet here with nothing?

Very unlikely given the board and previous action as he doesn't have many 'nothings' in his range going to the turn.

Given the range he makes this bet with I think you have to make a disciplined fold here as you’re not ahead of any of his range. Unfortunately you can't win them all and recognising that is part of being a winning player.

Once you call the turn and he continues to fire the river I think that this is, as you say in the title an 'easy fold'. I hope I could help a little, however the expert advice from the HA team will be much more use to you

Good luck at the tables

Oliver


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Last edited by Croyd93; Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 09:17 PM..
 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 07:17 AM
(#3)
STOCKY8A's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 39
BronzeStar
Hi Oliver
and for the reply this is a big help i am only thinking that the 9 is a bad card for me and not the hand he has that i can beat it will be a bad card for him too

and i think i am over playing a lot of my mid Pocket pairs JJ-88 i am 3bet and some of my Suited Connectors i am thinking when a have the top pocket pairs i will get pay more

THANKS FOR THE HELP
 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 08:28 PM
(#4)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Stocky8a

I think the most important thing in this hand is that there are so many hands with a jack in them. Let's count a few: AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ, JT, J9s. These are all hands our opponent could have a) raised from the position he raised from and b) called your re-raise with position. Well you might say, he can have some hands without a jack in them, hands like AQ/AK/KQ/QT/99 and so on.

So then how do we know whether he has a hand with a jack in it or one without? The main reason I think we can tell he has a hand that has a jack in it is because he is betting when given the opportunity to check, especially on the river.

So he could take his hand to showdown on the river, and if he had AK/AQ/KQ type hands he is very likely to try and take these to showdown. But when you check to him on the river he is definitely going to bet all his hands with a jack in them, so I think that is the point where we should fold.

Checking to call the turn makes a lot of sense because whether we are ahead or behind we can still fill up on the river and should we be ahead the river is going to go check check very often, almost always.

Hope this helps
 

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