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Another hand where I know I'm behind but can I get away from it?

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Another hand where I know I'm behind but can I get away from it? - Wed Dec 05, 2012, 08:07 PM
(#1)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778


Villian 9 was 21% VPiP, 21% PFR and this is 5 handed on a final table. His stats increased as the players thinned, he was quite a rock up until then. He only ever shoved before and his min raise is such a fishy monster.

I timebanked before reshoving. I'm not concerned about Villian 3 in this pot even though it was the winner.

Can you/ should you fold if you get a specific read like this?
 
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Wed Dec 05, 2012, 10:44 PM
(#2)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
Stats make no difference here, I'm shoving any pocket pair on this stack.

 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 03:41 AM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Ovalman,

I like your read. If the guy has definately only been shoving up until now, this is a very strong sign of a KK or AA type hand, especially on this short of a stack. We know we never have any fold equity with both ourselves and the villan being this short.

With the overlay of the blinds and antes we need 43% equity to make the reshove. I think with your read having the villan range weighted so much towards monsters I think you're fine going with your gut and folding here. Even if it means shoving the next hand UTG with any 2.

Thanks
Andrew




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 04:14 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
You're a good player Oval. My advice would be that if you've worked to get a specific read on a player then this is exactly the type of spot such a read can be most useful.

A reads only as strong as your ability to trust it and utilize it,after all.
 
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Fri Dec 07, 2012, 12:59 AM
(#5)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Well said Moxie




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Dec 07, 2012, 04:08 AM
(#6)
deadmoneykid's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 6
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
I think with your read having the villan range weighted so much towards monsters I think you're fine going with your gut and folding here. Even if it means shoving the next hand UTG with any 2.
At first glance, I would be so excited that my 6BB stack got dealt such a quality hand, that I would be falling over myself to get my chips in the pot. I suppose these "min-raise with a monster" reads can be more reliable than one might think. Maybe this will turn out to be the new way to leverage and maximize fold equity -- mixing in a few more hands into your min-raising range on a super short stack, hands that you would normally shove with (A8s+, KT+, 66+). It almost seems that some players see a shove of a 6-8 BB stack as a sign of vulnerability and snap-call with anything decent. Of course, it´s read-dependent and in this case hero had seen nothing but shoves from this player. An interesting spot all around.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
With the overlay of the blinds and antes we need 43% equity to make the reshove.
I´d like to grasp this concept better. Could you explain which formula this figure comes from? Does it come from PokerStove? This calculation assumes our 3-bet shove would be called 100%, correct? I assume this is not the fold equity formula 0=XP+(1-X)(-LV+WH).

Thanks in advance for your reply, Andrew.
 
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Fri Dec 07, 2012, 04:25 AM
(#7)
deadmoneykid's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 6
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadmoneykid View Post
I suppose these "min-raise with a monster" reads can be more reliable than one might think.
I´d like to add that anytime a player becomes so predictable that he makes a player correctly lay down TT on a 6 BB stack, he´s doing something wrong -- he´s turning his hand face up. There´s no way a bet-sizing tell should be that reliable. So if anyone catches themselves min-raising AA/KK and 3x-ing everything else, it´s time to change that.
 

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