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$0.25 45 Man, Shuving Ranges

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$0.25 45 Man, Shuving Ranges - Thu Dec 06, 2012, 06:56 AM
(#1)
adsthepro777's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 630


Hi all,
Just wondering whether this was the correct shuv or not, had less than 10bb's, is it more profitable to shuv this spot or wait until your the initial raiser?

The Villain had a 20% PFR and a 20% VPIP

Cheers for any feedback,

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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 08:54 AM
(#2)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I'm folding here.

The best we can hope for is a coinflip and are behind to a wide range of hands. I don't think he has a stack that we can push off with our re-shove.

Even though our stack is pretty short, it's still playable and it's still enough to push players off a hand. I'm guessing there are around 15 players left, a lot will be thinking money bubble at this stage and will tighten up.

Never give up in these and just pick your spots wisely but always be wary of who's behind you when you shove.
 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 09:42 AM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Imo you've got 8ish bbs here. If the blinds go through you 6 ish and though you could be the first one in being in a later pos. , you'll. Lose almost all fold equity against the big stacks to your left.
You've got to figure your going to be an equity dog if your called here, but u should have some fe against the weaker part of the raisers range as well.being he will have to call off 1/2 his stack and he'll be swaping spots w/ you if he loses.
When called in a spot like this, I'd guess your not too many times much worse than flipping, which to me seems like generally what you'll need to do at some point in the near future anyhow.
When you find yourself this short, your going to have to pick a spot. This doesn't seem like too bad of one to pick.
I play 10 bb start stack HTs and I often see people even calling off shoves like yours with much worse than KJs as well, so you sometimss you'll even be going in as a favorite.
Well there's my 2 cents. MT


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 10:03 AM
(#4)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
The structure of these games means we can play off a shorter stack. I don't think we're in that spot yet where this is an instant re-shove. I have a wide re-shove range in this spot but KJs is not one of the hands I'd like to re-shove with. We are dominated by so many hands while flipping with most others. Our hand is close to the bottom of his raising range.

Fold from me.
 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 10:55 AM
(#5)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I think this is a very close spot.

I expect them to have an ace often, but at 20%VPIP it could be a weak Ax, or they could have Kx often, and we are Ok versus that plus lower pairs - against their range we are probably flipping often - so it is very read dependent on their raise here and what we have seen them do that with.

I don't know for sure - but I would be very tempted to do the same and shove here.

One for Andy I think.

Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Dec 06, 2012, 02:35 PM
(#6)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Guys,

Some good discussion going on here.

I could go either way here, Sorry to sit on the fence . I think it could be a good spot, but read dependant.

To shove in this spot I absolutely want to know that we have good fold equity, If I don't think the villan can fold at all then it's a fold for me.

So the things I'm looking at to determine if we have any fold equity.

1) He's raising 20% of hands, how much of that range will he be folding to a reshove.

2) His PFR & VPIP are the same meaning he raises every hand he plays. So he's playing TAG

3) He's on the cut-off which is a stealing position. TAGs should know about stealing. (Nits not so much)

4) He has 18BBs and is raising knowing there's two players on 8 BBs in the blinds.

Anyone have any other reads?

I think there probably is some of his 20% range that he will be folding and he should be somewhere near that full 20% range given he's in late position. His identical PFR & VPIP tell me he's probably playing a TAG style. TAGs even at the 25c level should have some idea of stealing the blinds etc and may be shoving if he has a hand he's planning on calling off with, even with one bigger stack left to act.

The last point is a little troubling. The fact both us and the SB have shorter stacks means a good TAG will know they need to call a reshove if we were to make one. Unless we ourselves had been very tight and passive.

If we look briefly at our hand equity. When we get called by 20% of hands our equity is about 48%, not a train wreck but not stellar compared to our edge at the 25c level.

Adding everything up I think I'd come down slightly on the side of shoving. Since we have 200 chips in there already we are committing 1350 to win 3200. We need 42% equity to break even. We should have that most times and I do think we have some things going for us on the fold equity side also.

I like that you're looking for spots like this.
Andy


PS
Two things that would tip it to a shove for me is. If I had seen him raise and fold (rather than raise call) at any earlier point in SnG. If I had seen him raise 2 or 3 times from a stealing position.




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