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25NL Zoom 2p vs Raise

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25NL Zoom 2p vs Raise - Sun Dec 09, 2012, 09:57 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain was 27/23, AF: 1.3 over 22 hands. Flop fold to cbet: 0% (2)



One of the spots which I hate getting played out. Not sure whether to bet or not on the turn.

For betting: Extract max value 3 streets from worse Aces or 2 pairs. We miss value from worse hands if he checks behind.

For checking: Board's getting coordinated. Couldn't withstand a raise (maybe we can?). We wouldn't know what to put them on- weaker 2 pairs, set, turned straight. Don't think he'll do this with a straight draw though. On top of that, we're left with < pot-size bet on the river. Tough decision if he goes all in on river.

What line should we take on the turn? In this instance, is this a fold?
 
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Mon Dec 10, 2012, 10:41 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

First thing first, I think the turn bet is mandatory.

Let's think about how a lot of his range improves on this card. A lot of it improves to hands we still have beat.

QJ picks up a gutshot. KJ now has a worse two pair. TJ/AQ/AT all now have gutshots to the nuts. These hands are all great for us to value bet especially since when they get there they aren't going to stack us.

But none of these hands raise the turn either. For that reason I think we should consider his raising range something close to

AJ/AK/QTs/JJ/88/A8s at the widest. Against this range we have 46.5% equity, which is enough to continue via call, but there is still another street to play. With all the dead money in the middle we have enough equity to move all in versus this range. But what if we tighten that range just a notch? I think the least likely hand for him to raise the turn is A8s.


Board: Ac Kd Js 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.182% 33.18% 10.00% 2628 792.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 56.818% 46.82% 10.00% 3708 792.00 { JJ, 88, AKs, AJs, QTs, AKo, AJo }

We can see things are getting a bit hairy. What's more is that we are assuming there are 0 QTo combinations in his preflop range (since they would all call on the flop had he called preflop) and this assumption might be false.

I think the short answer is that I think this is a spectacular fold which takes real insight into the nature of the board and your opponent's range. Despite that, it still might be quite close, since with a decent amount of dead money in the pot, we do not need to be a favourite to put the money in at this point to turn a profit.

Well done
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 12:39 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Haha not that spectacular a fold though. Just demonstrated the quality of a weak-tight player on the spot lol. Did consider his range on his 3x raise and matched the range you put on Pokerstove. Thanks!
 

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