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25NL Zoom River Fold Equity

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25NL Zoom River Fold Equity - Mon Dec 10, 2012, 05:15 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain is an unknown, no stats on him.



Flop: Didn't cbet as I thought it could have hit his range. Not even sure if Queens will fold. So I felt that checking is better.

Turn: Since he checked back on the flop, I assume he had some sort of PP like TT or a pair of Jacks. Went for the delayed cbet hoping to take the pot down. He called, I asume he could be on second pair.

River: We hit our straight. Bet for value but didn't see the shove coming. Think there're a few possibilities:
1) Hit his backdoor flush
2) Held AQ as well
3) Held 2 pairs or a set (JT or TT). Didn't realise we're that strong
4) Pure bluff

Is calling the last $15 for $35 worth the shot? Somehow I regret folding as backdoor flush is a small part of his range, but did so cos of bad past experience. Felt that it was weak play by me
 
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Mon Dec 10, 2012, 01:21 PM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Awesome

I think we should continuation bet the flop. While you mention that you think it hits his range pretty well, I think it hits ours better. In fact we are going to have a lot of hands like JJ/AK/AA betting here, so we can add a hand like AQ into our betting range, which makes us very tough to play against. We also have real equity versus his calling range, I think it all adds up to a continuation bet.

The river is pretty interesting. I think he can have a lot more two heart combos than you would give him credit for. Why? Because the flop checked through. That discounts a lot of his pairs and certainly pure bluffs, since he would bet them frequently.

Now the fact that the flush is backdoor doesn't actually mean anything here, since it would only be tough to backdoor a flush if you had a barrier to seeing the turn. Here, since our opponent did not face a turn bet, that barrier does not exist.

So sure, his shoving range might include AQ as well as maybe TT sometimes, but I think he is

a never bluffing here
b doing this with a range of AQ and XYhh
c we aren't getting the right price to call and chop or lose

So I think you should have c-bet the flop and the rest of the hand is played well
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 12:33 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Gareth, will keep in mind to cbet such flops in the future. I put in Pokerstove his range being JTs, JTo, TT, AQs, AQo, QJs, we only have 50% equity. He did face a turn bet though. But guess it's a fold still
 

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