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5NL - AKs getting raised on flop with TPTK

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5NL - AKs getting raised on flop with TPTK - Mon Dec 10, 2012, 09:37 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain is 28/20/3 (61 hands)
What sort of hands would villain raise the flop with here? what do you think of my flop/turn decision?

 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 12:22 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Geo

I think check-folding the turn here is a mistake, particularly because of the size of the bet. I think we are getting too good of a price because there is a) a chance we are still ahead with the best hand and b) a chance to draw out on any hand our opponent has, from TT to QJ.

So given those things and the money that is going to be behind on the river, I think we should continue. If we fill up we can have a very profitable situation and if we check the river unimproved and our opponent moves all-in, we can fold to the shove.

Our opponent is also not guaranteed to shove all-in on the river, and the times the river goes check-check, I think we are going to win pretty close to 100% of the time.

I think that this is a spot where check-calling a 1.20 bet on the turn, with the chance of improving and the chance of winning the pot without further improvement is going to be a huge difference from the size of the mistake check-calling an all-in river shove will be on a blank river.

By that I mean, let's say we have 3 outs (because of card removal) on the turn. That means we are going to improve about 6% of the time to the nuts. Then the most our mistake could be is for 1.20 (.94) = 1.12. This doesn't even account for our implied odds when we hit the nuts on the river and the times the river goes check check. After we factor all those things in, it is hard for check-calling the turn to be a huge mistake. Particularly in comparison to calling a river shove with 0% equity for a much much larger bet.

So I think you should try to be comfortable with calling here and be comfortable with the idea of check-folding the river in a lot of rivers.
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 04:38 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Gareth, thanks for the reply. It seems you are assuming villain has more than just TT/33/QJ in his raising range there? Because if we assign those hands to his raising range then I don't see how we are getting the right odds to call to improve. Pot odds are 28% and we improve only 9% of the time.
But if we add hands to his raising range on that flop, hands like: AK and KQ then it is right to call with 33% equity.
But how many TAG/LAG villains do you see not 3betting AK on BTN and raising KQ on K high flop and barrelling again on an A on the turn? The line is too aggressive for KQ so I boiled it down to very strong hands,and no bluffs. which makes me think that it's more likely that he has a set or a made str8 by the turn.
Even if we do call for implied oods when we improve, we are out of position and we might not be able to extract more value especially if the villain is holding QJ and he might even shut down if an A or K paired since I did raise UTG and called a raise on a K high and also would check/call on an A turn.
what do you think? is this too far fetched as a thought process?
 

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