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10NL flop fold or call and see turn?

10NL flop fold or call and see turn? - Tue Dec 11, 2012, 05:54 AM
tomdwan779's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 321
oppo 155Hs 30/1071.5 3bet 0%

Tue Dec 11, 2012, 11:54 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Tom,

First thing I'm looking at is why are we 3-betting V5? No reads for this villain are given so not sure what the plan is here, as we actually have a nice depth of money to flat him in position and potentially put him in a lot of gross post flop spots.

Post flop I would definitely call V2 and see the turn. First, I think V2's range is extremely strong here. He cold called our 3b from out of position, and is min-check-raising us on the flop... I think we will be looking at JJ or TT an awful lot in this spot. Which means we can profitably call the raise on our draw, getting immediate odds of 4.75-1 (ty min-raise), and fully expecting to get the additional $5.34 in on the turn when we hit since all 8 of our straight outs will be cards he won't fold to, giving us implied odds of 8-1. If we miss, on the turn we'll have to fold to his probable shove as we'll only be getting 2.7-1 to call that bet.

I don't really like re-raising him all in on the flop tbh. We are not going to be able to fold out any of his strong range here, so we're basically just charging ourselves his entire stack to draw. We'll get to see 2 cards, but our price is $6.94 to win $12.94, ~1.9-1, -EV. If we could count some overcard outs that would help, but that seems quite optimistic to me that making a pair will be good too often, given how strong his line looks.

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