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16NL would you play turn different?

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16NL would you play turn different? - Tue Dec 11, 2012, 06:00 AM
(#1)
tomdwan779's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 321
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Oppo 32Hs 28/25/1.6 3bet21%

 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 12:12 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Tom,

We are getting a fair price to call at 2.8-1 with a 15 out draw, but depending on reads (that go beyond the 32 hands of raw stats you have) this could be a very nice spot to reraise jam. If the villain was only going to raise the turn with 2 pair+ then that's not a good play as he's never laying down hands of that strength and we're just stacking off a draw as a 2-1 dog basically, but if he can sometimes be raising worse then this line is nice as it should look massively strong, so we can possible get hands as strong as KJ to fold (AK I assume he'd 3b pre quite often). And, he would have to call another $12.82 into a pot of $24.90 so less than 2-1, meaning not only do we have real fold equity against all 1 pair hands, but also against any draws as well since they are not getting the right price to call off to a shove here with 1 card to come. If we can get a hand like Ah7h to fold that's a huge EV victory for us as well as getting KJ to fold is.


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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 12:24 PM
(#3)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
PREFLOP
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I'm not one to go for baby suited connectors, but that's just me. Maybe in the small or on the button, but not here, where I might have to play em out of posisition against the button.

I do like the not limping and the bet size. But - the button calls and now I'm OOP with a pretty useless hand.

FLOP
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Probably one of the best outcomes, the flush draw. There's a good chance th K or Q hit his range though, and of course there's a chance he was holding a big suited ace in hearts. I tread careful here. But given that we did decide to play - a c-bet of about 80 cents would be my action.

He calls the c-bet, which means I'm pretty much done. Try to get to showndown cheaply if a heart hits the board (which is gonna be hard, checking down two streets oop), or fold otherise.

TURN
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Great, more outs. 17 outs now for about a 1 in 3 shot of hitting a winner on the river. Assuming my flush outs are good. You could make s emi-bluff here, but I'd opt for a check-call course of action.

You make the c-bet, but I would have made it bigger. After all, if he is on the draw we wouldn't want him to continue too cheaply.

Instead he raises. Exit, stage left.

Time for the math:
If you call you will invest another $3.20 to win a pot that will be $12.08. that's about 25% pot odds.

* hitting the straight will be good, but that's a 17% shot.
* hitting the flush *might* be good as I consider an AK-high/AQ-high flush draw part of his range. If he doesn't have the flush draw, there's about a 19% chance to hit. In this case, make the call.
However, if he does have the flush draw, you have only 6 outs because two of you straight outs are dirty.

Suppose you call: what then if the river is a heart? Bet-fold the river? Check-call the river? Check-folding is not an option as you'd call here to hit the flush.

Perhaps a shove at this point? Maybe for you, not for me. I don't think he'd fold a big flush draw, and if he has a K or Q he's not folding. I don't see a lot of fold equity in a shove here,

My conclusion at this point: muck em.

RIVER
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A total blank. A shove here might get him to fold an unpaired flush draw, but since the flush draw missed, I doubt he's folding anything pair or better. Check-fold is the only option I think.
 

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