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Missed value?

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Missed value? - Tue Dec 11, 2012, 07:51 AM
(#1)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385


villain's stats 20/16/AF3/AFq50(626)
wanted to RR allin on the river but was worried abt AK, being the nit that I am...

so the question is, shudda, cudda, wudda have i jus shoved on the river?
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 11:05 AM
(#2)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Lol bro interesting spot here. These river raises sometimes really make us crack our heads.

I feel that with us holding AQo, we almost have the board locked up. Makes it less likely that he held QQ or an Ace. Most reasonable hand to put him on is KK. If we're super conservative, place his range as AKs, AKo, KK, on Pokerstove, we have 50% equity.

However, if he could hold an Ace, AJs, AJo is likely too. Add in JTs, backdoor heart flush draws, we have more than enough equity. AK is just a part of his range. Unlikely he's raising river as a bluff from his stats, he probably feels he's got the best hand.

I wudda shoved the river. Any legit hand he has like a straight, backdoor flush, or weaker trips, boats can't get away here. If he really has AK, then it's just one of the few times we lose from this +EV play. Just my 2cents worth. Might be wrong, love to hear from others

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM..
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 11:33 AM
(#3)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Missed value? Perhaps. Of course it's easier said when knowing what he's holding.

To put it simply: on the river you have the 2nd nuts. The only hand that can possibly beat you is quad aces which he doesn't have since he can have only one ace, or Ace king which is a possibility. Albeit a small one since he'd need to have the case ace.

I would jam here every day of the week. In the long run, it's a +EV move since the times he will fold or call with worse (like his kings here, or perhaps a flush) will be far more common than the times he actually has the AK.

With that said, you can't be sure he will call the river, so I'd go with yes, missed value.

After seeing his kings: I don't think he's ever getting away from them as you have one of the two hands that beat him (AQ and AA).
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 12:45 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi wikked,

I agree with coming back over the top and shoving the river. We should be good AND get called more often than we are called and beat. In order to lose we have to be up against specifically AK, which there are only 3 combos of and he would have had to check the flop as a slowplay (and I'd think he c-bets the flop at least some of the time). Other hands he can be taking this line with are KK (3 combos), QQ (1 combo) JT (16 possible combos if all are in play, 4 if he only opens this hand suited), and some flush combos like QhJh, QhTh at least. He's always calling with the full houses, and probably with all the nut flush combos as well. Maybe the straights and smaller flushes, maybe not, but we don't need calls from any of those to make shoving profitable. Actually if he ONLY calls a shove with boats, it's still profitable to shove (4 combos we beat vs. 3 beating us)... getting called by flushes etc is just a bonus.


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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 01:14 PM
(#5)
joker41673's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,850
To me personally it depends on how I'm running. Lately I've been hit in the face with brick after brick. If I have AA they hit a set of 6's. If I hit a set of 9's they hit a set of J's. If i catch a straight they catch the flush and so on and so on.

So in this spot I'm fine with calling. There's no way I'm folding and I would have at least half pot the flop just to try to take it there. If AK was the only hand that could beat me and it was a blind vs blind race he'd have AK against me.

I know that's the wrong mindset to have but sometimes you have to face reality and just be a bit more conservative.
 
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Tue Dec 11, 2012, 10:46 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Wikked gets the trickiest 2nd nut spots Here's one he posted during the 6-max challenge you have to see to believe: http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...662_6483D3A87D

It feels like I've played a gazillion hands of poker, but then there's always some new combination of hand/opponent that's coming up that's different from everything's that's come before - and you don't really have time in the moment to stop and think about all the new angles. But I guess that's what keeps things so fresh and exciting, eh? When the novelty's not driving us nuts?

The discussion's awesome!! Great points made by everybody - re the pokerstove angle, the fold equity angle, the blockers angle ... the tilt angle - lolooolllloll!!! (not that tilt is funny per se - it totally sucks. It's just kind of funny that it's a very real factor, along with equity estimates, etc. Hope you get through your rough patch sooner rather than later Joker )

I wonder if Wikked ranged the opponent in the same way as me in the moment - like, super nit versus another reg, with a river reraise signifying a range of QQ, AQ, AK, KK at the widest?

And the reg knows Wikked doesn't have QQ, AK or because regs all 3-bet those. And KK's not possible.

You think it's possible to rule out QQ and AQ from the villain's range because there wasn't a cbet on the flop? Not feeling too confident about that.

Also, you think it's possible to rule out AK from the villain's range for the same reason? Combined with a mere reraise and not a shove on the river? Not feeling too confident about that one either.

I guess the decision on whether or not to call hinges largely on ranging, eh? But I think I'd like to spend more time pondering all that other stuff - the pokerstoving, the fold equity, the blockers, possible tilt ... and how different the decision might wind up being as the ranging gets wider, since my ranging could be off?

Lots of cool stuff to think about ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 11:57 PM.. Reason: sorry - my thinking got muddled :/
 
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Wed Dec 12, 2012, 05:25 AM
(#7)
wikked76's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 385
@sam
believe it or not, that hand on BOOM! still hurts!!!

i agree with the points on reshoving on the river, but I guess I've been running bad and scared after suffering so many suckouts the past couple of weeks that I jus "auto called" and hoping the mighty AK doesn't show?
 

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