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Ov3rsight goals for 2013

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Ov3rsight goals for 2013 - Thu Dec 13, 2012, 02:23 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Yes, I shameless copied the idea from Sandtrap777. But I would have set me some goals anyway, just not this way

I hope to do just as well since that's the kind of thing I had in mind when I started out. My intent is not to get rich, but a little extra cash never hurts.

The only thing that requires some serious pondering is the HUD. He's right there when he says players will start to follow the HUD more than their instincts and their own judgement. That's a risk, so I'll be appending that to my HUD goal. Or, since I'm doing fine without one, maybe I should reconsider using it at all.

----------------------------

Now, with 2012 almost behind us, it's time to start thinking about the goals I wish to set for myself for next year. Over the past few days I've been considering realistic goals.

* Continuous play throughout the year
This year I started out nicely but that only lasted about 3 months. A big losing streak drove me away and I only got back the the felt in November. So that's less than half a year's worth of play. I wonder how much of a profit I can get with a full year's worth. This should amount to having played around 1,000 Sit-n-Gos and around 60,000 hands in the cash games.

* Total yearly profit: at least $150
Since that's why were here, let's start thinking about profit. I would like to at least triple my profit of this year. Triple because I'll be playing more than twice as much, and I am anticipating going up in limits and making more money at the higher limit than I would at the lower limit. Should I hit this goal long before the year's end, I will have learned that this goal wasn't all that realistic and switch over to my backup goal of $350. Frankly, I've only a short timeframe that I have played this year so it's hard to set something that's within my reach but not overly easy to get. With a full year's play over 2013, I will be able to set a better goal for 2014.

* Get a HUD
So far I've been playing without. The reason is simple: I don't have one. The reason for that is even simpler: I'm too much of a cheapskate to spend 100 bucks on Hold Em Manager 2 or something alike, especially when they have promotions available that can get you the license for free. I'm signed up for one, and I have only a small amount of bonus points to go before I have enough to cash them in.... The aim is to do so within the first two months although I'm not going to be cranky if I need time in March as well.

* The Bankroll Building Challenge
Currently my cash game play is at 4NL 6max, and going well. Soon I'll be switching over to 5NL, and the goal is to reach the 10NL level in the coming year. That means I've got to get my bankroll up. To where is yet to be determined. I've seen the Grinding up series by xflixx, and he suggests not moving up to 5NL unless you have a $200 bankroll. I failed at that. I set aside 25 bucks for cash games, which would allow me to play only the 2NL games. Instead, I moved up to 4NL before I hit a $50 bankroll, and so far, they have been profitable too, and as such I assume 5NL won't be too much of an issue. I'll probably try a few shots at 10NL over the year but won't make a serious attempt at going up until my bankroll hits $150. It's almost three times what I have now, but still far below the recommended bankroll levels. We'll see what happens. Attached is also the notion of when to go back: I'll start at 10NL with $150 and drop back down at $100. I'll go through this no more than 3 times. If I have to go back to 5NL a third time, I'll keep there until the bankroll hits $250 before I try again.

* Evaluation
I'll be looking back at my own plays of course, but I will attempt to post at least 2 hands a week in the hand analysis forum to get some feedback. As such, I will attempt to get one of my sessions evaluated too, and preferably at a time when I shouldn't be sound asleep like the last time. Unfortunately I can't go back and review all my played hands. Time for me is a very limiting factor. I will try to evaluate my play while at the table, and I will do some analysis of hand histories, but that will mostly be on a larger scale, trying to figure out which kinds of plays are losing me money.

* Variation
I'm going to be starting out at the 6-max tables. I've been playing those since I got back, and proitably. On the other hand, before my break this year I played the FullRing tables, and also profitably. Since I'm having decent results at both gam types, I will initially be mixing it up, and after a month or two evaluate which is the more profitable for me, and then probably stick mostly to that. Or just keep playing them both. Is that even a goal?

* Bankroll Management
As said, I've already deviated (some might say rather recklessly) from established thoughts about bankroll management. As such, I'll write up some guidelines for myself and update them as needed. These should be done in first draft in the first few weeks, and should deal with the needed bankroll to play at a certain level, at what bankroll to drop back to a lower level, max buyins for SnGs and MTTs, but also on when to get up off a cash table. For this, I'll keep two different bankroll lists, one for the tournament results, one for the cash game results. Based upon what I've read from PSO member Sandtrap777, I'll probably go with what he did, since I've already been doing that, and it seems to work for us both. That means: leave the table when I hit a good profit (I'm going to go with a full buyin of profit instead of his 50%), and to not use the auto topping up feature the software offers. Just as him, I'd rather fight my way back from a deficit than just rebuy. It's also easier for me that way to keep track of my profit or loss at the table. Some people say you shouldn't be paying attention to that while playing, but I do. One interesting question will be if I let it effect my playing style. I'll need to look into that.

And now that my list is complete, I look them over a few more times. Is this realistic? Isn't this too far fetched, isn't this too easy?

Time will tell
 
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Thu Dec 13, 2012, 10:47 AM
(#2)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
VERY well done Oversight.

To help you stay focus, now you'll need to break it down in months and then in weeks. How will you achieve those goals on a weekly basis?

Look at your past results and try to find the right mix to do so

I'll re-read your post later

Good Luck
 
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Thu Dec 13, 2012, 11:46 AM
(#3)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
HEM low stakes (which I own) is only $60, I paid for mine with a $50 KO bonus I earned. Without hurting your bankroll too much, I suggest you withdraw at the first opportunity and purchase it when you've made $60 profit.

I suggest you don't use a HUD immediately instead use HEM to analyse your own stats. There's nothing wrong with staying at the stakes you're at a bit longer than you hope, the time spent working on your game will more than compensate. Get those leaks plugged now when the stakes are low and you won't make as many when you move up stakes.

Nice achievable goals btw but don't think you've failed if you don't achieve some of them. Improving your game should be your number one aim
 
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Thu Dec 13, 2012, 12:17 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
...............There's nothing wrong with staying at the stakes you're at a bit longer than you hope, the time spent working on your game will more than compensate. Get those leaks plugged now when the stakes are low and you won't make as many when you move up stakes.

Ovalman is right. I have plenty of bankroll to move up to 100NL, but I'm stuck at 25NL, because I still have problems at 50NL. The best way to move up is to try a level higher ONLY when you have made a good profit.
Right now I play 75% 25NL and 25% 50NL, I will increase when I feel my game as gotten better or I feel more sure of myself.
BUT, you need to come down when it's not working and not wait to long.
Remember, it's not because you've reach $200 that you MUST go to 5NL.

GL
 
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Thu Dec 13, 2012, 01:04 PM
(#5)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
I'll give some thought on monthly goals. Not going for a weekly goal, my available time is way too wonky to set anything reliable.

As for comfort: I've been doing these cash games for a month now, 19 sessions, which isn't a whole lot. 13 of them were profitable, 6 were in the red. The problem I'm trying to overcome now is that the negatives are usually larger than the positives. Still, things are going in the right direction.

As for HEM2: I don't intend to pay for something if I can get it for free. All I need to do is grind enough bonus points.


The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


 
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Thu Jan 31, 2013, 12:45 AM
(#6)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Well, just at the start of the year I set some goals for myself. Before I go and look back on them and see how I've done, I'm going to go out on a limb and say I'm pretty happy with this month. The hours I can spend at the table have been few, 2 or 3 1-hour sessions a week tops, but they have been very profitable. First, that stats for January:

2NL:
winning sessions: 1/3 (613 hands, 4 hrs)
profit: -$7,27 (-59 BB/100 or -91 BB/hr)

4NL:
winning sessions: 2/4 (587 hands, 4 hrs)
profit: -$9,24 (-39 BB/100 or -58 BB/hr)

10NL:
winning sessions: 9/10 (714 hands, 8.4 hrs)
profit: +$33,43 (+47 BB/100 or +40 BB/hr)

As you can see, with my limited time I've pretty much stuck with one game type: my foray into 6max 10NL. It's kind of going against all advice and bankroll management rules, but so far so good. When I look at these stats, there does remain a single question to be answered: why am I winning at 10NL and losing at 2NL and 4NL? Of course it is way too early to answer that question, this could simply be variance. Although I must admit: I've been playing this same 4NL game all through November and December for a total of 4k hands and a profit of almost $12. So I was doing pretty decent at 4NL too. Still, I will leave this question until later after I have a few more hands to work with.

Now for my goals:

First off, it took me the whole of 3 days to abandon my 1,000 game grind. I had set forth to play 1,000 9 man SnGs at $1.50. However, after getting off to a very bad start and seeing how much time I actually was playing, I decided to abandon this one in favor of my cash game play and the goals associated with that.

Now for those goals:

1] Continuous play throughout the year
So far so good. I've been playing a few times a week consistently. I foresee no trouble keeping this up.

2] Total yearly profit of at least $150
My total profit for January is $16.92 which is a good start and above average to make my goal. Interesting is that this is half my profit at 10NL and the other half was lost at lower stakes.

3] Get a HUD
This is going well: since my move to 10NL in the first week of January I have accrued half the remaining player points I need to qualify for my free copy of HM2. The intent was to achieve this in 2 months, or maybe 3. With my current rate, I will have no problem getting there.

4] The Bankroll Building Challenge
I kind of strayed from my path here. I jumped the gun, got ahead of myself and started taking shots at 10NL without the bankroll-limit I had set for myself. I'll have to revisit this at the end of February to see what I'm going to do with this one. If February goes as well as January, those bankroll-limits will have to be replaced....

5] Evaluation
I have posted a few hands for analysis in the forums, but not the 2 hands a week I had planned. This however is easily fixable. The reason for not posting hands was because early in the month there was little to post: I didn't need people to tell me I screwed up because I knew very well that my losses were due to bad play. I have posted a few hands later in the month where I was unsure if my play was correct. Analysis of my play to see where I'm losing money overall is currently not doable, I will need HM2 for that first. To be continued.

6] Variation
I kind of completely ignored this one. I was doing well at 6max, and with my limited time, I decided to stick to 6max and not sit down at FR tables. Maybe later, maybe not. We'll see what happens.

7] Bankroll Management
Well, as said, all bankroll management rules I had set for myself went out the door. Although I like to believe I have good reasons for doing so, there will always be a difference of opinion on the matter. As for leaving the table: I find I am mostly sitting out my 1-hour sessions (I set a limit of 1 hour per session to avoid going crazy and losing my profit). I have deviated once from this by playing for a full 2 hours, and mostly I checked out a few minutes early. I have not yet reached a level at a table where I had a double-buyin stack, which was my mark to leave. However, if I am up big (over 60% of a buyin), I do set myself a lower limit, where I will leave if I drop below that. This has not yet happened. I'm also not using the topping up feature as I had planned for myself. I know the pro and con arguments for topping up, maybe I'll change my mind later, but not for a while. Perhaps it helps that I have yet to get so short it becomes an issue.

So, do I need to update my goals? Maybe, but not after just one month. I'm going to continue as I do now for at least one, probably two more months and then re-evaluate my goals. Unless something drastically changes of course. I do have one additional goal for February:

8] Studying
I need to study up on betsizing. So far I've been religiously following the 'always keep the same betsize to avoid betsizing tells' mantra. It may be costing me some money when I lose hands and I might be missing out on some value in my winnings hands. I'm going to have to look into reasons to vary the bet size, and how. I'll make a blogpost on the matter sometime soon.

Well, onto February...


The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


 
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Thu Jan 31, 2013, 06:28 AM
(#7)
powerdegre's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 563
BronzeStar
Impressive presentation but... why the shot at NL10? might go great, might clean your roll, fancy the risk?
 
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Thu Jan 31, 2013, 11:44 AM
(#8)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
There's a goal to reach and that happens faster at 10NL. Win or lose a pot, your rake is the same, and thus your bonus points:

Blog post: The Cardinal Rule
Blog post: Adventures at 10NL

Yes, there's a higher risk, but I put aside 25 bucks for this purpose. If it's gone, too bad. Its sole purpose is to get me my free copy of HM2. If I blow it all, I can always play at 2NL again, and I will still have the bonus points earned.


The Road to Fame and Fortune - Keeping track of my poker semi-career
Keep up to date: @Ov3rsight


 
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Thu Jan 31, 2013, 08:06 PM
(#9)
powerdegre's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 563
BronzeStar
I'd prefer playing it safe and simply buy the software with my winnings, but whatever works mate, if you've got a backup plan and you fancy the risk, best of luck
 
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Nice goals - Sat Feb 09, 2013, 01:52 PM
(#10)
Stitches_Mtl's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 21
Solid Goals which require great discipline.
If you follow them you will undoubtedly be VERY successful.
I look forward to reading on your progress.
Best of luck to you
 

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