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5NL - tough turn decision with 2pair

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5NL - tough turn decision with 2pair - Sun Dec 16, 2012, 06:24 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi,

SB is unknown
BB is 24/14/inf (45 hands) - not much we can tell from the sample size



What can he raise with after SB calls here? Are we more inclined to think he has a set?
I'm thinking: AQ, KQ, QJ, 66, 33, maybe 45?

Now that we hit two pair and he bets out again on a K, can we rule out the AQ, QJ?

What do we do here?
 
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Sun Dec 16, 2012, 08:02 AM
(#2)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
i think if QK with a pair of Qs was good enough to call on flop its good enough to shove turn. his range is wide maybe your crushed by a set , maybe he has 2 pair or 45s the only draw on flop that got better. he dont seem shy about putting chips in the pot
 
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Mon Dec 17, 2012, 04:35 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I think our optimal line is to flat the turn. We can't rule out AQ or QJ imo as he may simply continue his aggression with those hoping we fold or don't have a K. If we flat call and he checks the river to us, we can make a token value bet and get looked up by AQ. If he shoves the river into us then I would probably fold actually. Since it's such a dry flop his range to check/raise flop and bet turn is like 33, 66, QQ, AQ, KQ, QJ maybe. But I think once we call the turn he's likely not bombing the river with a worse hand, he's going to have KQ or a set, and just check to us when it's AQ.

Also this would have been a nice spot to vary our play and not continuation bet sometimes. The flop is very dry so there's very little concern with free cards, and we can expect only 1-2 streets of value form worse hands, there's just not much they can hold, but if we check back the flop we can get 2 streets from some pretty weak 1 pair hands that now don't believe us as well as induce hopeless hands like 9c8c to try and take a stab (or call us down for 2 streets when they turn an 8). When our best expectation is 2 streets of value from worse, those streets don't always have to be the flop and turn... they can be the flop and river or turn and river too sometimes.


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Mon Dec 17, 2012, 04:39 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi kingkong,

I think shoving the turn is a mistake. His range in this spot is basically sets, Qx, and a few random bluffs. This looks like a classic spot where if we shove the turn we'll fold out the worse hands in his range (hands which are in terrible shape... AQ has 3 outs, QJ zero outs, random bluffs zero outs) and only get called by a range that is crushing us (other KQ's and sets).


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