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25NL Zoom River Lost Value

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25NL Zoom River Lost Value - Mon Dec 17, 2012, 01:10 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Played this hand recently. Villain is an unknown 38/38, AF: 4.0 over 8 hands.



Villain cbets 2 streets. Think there're 3 possiblities.
1) Bluff
2) PP from 33-99
3) PP from JJ-AA

On the spot I plan to check-raise his river bet.

However, we don't know if he'll river bet with the 3 categories. Can we assume that bluffs will never bet, 33 to 99 MIGHT bet, JJ to AA will bet? By betting ourselves, we'll gain value from JJ to AA, may even get raised. We'll be denying 33 to 99 a chance to bet, but they probably will call our bet.

Just want to confirm that leading out on the river is the better line. Is that right?
 
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Mon Dec 17, 2012, 04:48 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

I prefer leading the river here, something like $7. This will probalby still get called by pocket pairs below the ten (since he can beat bluffs and some type of weird flush) and he may raise all in with overpairs since it can look like we just hit 2's full of T's. Checking will induce bluffs but I don't really see the guy 3-barrel bluffing after we check/called him twice. He could also be betting a hand like AK for thin value, and I think is more likely to call with it than bet again on the river.


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