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25NL Zoom Flopped Set Ugly Board

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25NL Zoom Flopped Set Ugly Board - Mon Dec 17, 2012, 06:51 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain was 50/0 over 6 hands. Unknown.



By limp-3betting, I put him on premiums from QQ+, AKs, AKo. Flat him with intention to set-mine. Difficult for him to get away from overpairs or TPTK.

Flop: He checks, wasn't sure if he had second pair QQ, air, or slowplaying AK, KK. I bet for value and also didn't want any spade to come up.

Turn: He leads out 1/4 pot, really not sure what it meant. Raised it up so that we can set up a nice river shove.

River: Not the best card for us. Makes it less likely that he has KK. He checks, showing weakness. I went with my plan shoving the rest for max value.

Question is that from Villain's line, should we worry about QQ and KQ? Through his actions, should we include AK in Pokerstove? River all in or check? Thanks!
 
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Mon Dec 17, 2012, 08:10 AM
(#2)
kingkong263's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 175
i am gussing u lost .
 
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Mon Dec 17, 2012, 10:52 AM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Awesome,

25nl is a bit above my level but fwiw I think you played the hand pretty optimal. Pre-flop seems standard, without reads it is hard to range him but I think you're right in saying that the limp/3b is strong; especially from UTG. I think his range is QQ+ AQs+ and AKo preflop.

I think he check calls the flop with AsQs QQ+ AKs and AKo, when the turn peels a Q and he leads small I'm unsure what this means. The only hand that makes sense for him to do this is QQ really, because nearly all his x/c range on the flop would x/c the turn as well. Although the bet smells fishy he may do it with AsQs or even AK as he wants value.

On the river I think you have to go with your plan, although I think he has QQ a lot of the time AK is definitely paying you off now as is AsQs so I would go for it. The turn bet is weird though and I think it makes it harder for AK to be in his range come the river.

I'll be interested to see what others say.

Oliver


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Mon Dec 17, 2012, 09:55 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

You worry too much.

I am always value betting his last 10 bucks here when checked to. I think we are ahead way more than not. Granted his entire line seems goofy here and he could be doing something that makes no sense at all, but when he donks the turn small and you raise him a solid amount (half his remaining stack) I can't fathom that he wouldn't shove right there with QQ, KK, or KQ (or 99 for that matter). Even though we might expect all these holdings to play a bit differently earlier in the hand I just can't imagine any of them flatting your turn raise on such a wet board. And then not betting all in when they fill on the river to boot. So I'm quite content to put him in on the river and take my chances.


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Tue Dec 18, 2012, 12:37 AM
(#5)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Haha kingkong well done. Villain flips over QQ. I wasn't that stunned as I put him on that range earlier. His line is simply weird, can't say it's wrong since he got the desired result lol.

If we Pokerstove his range as KK-QQ, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo, we only have 44% equity by the river. If we exclude KQs and KQo, we're 66% favourite. So I wasn't too sure... But given his passive line, I think it's pretty difficult for us to get away from bottom boat here.
 

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