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5NL - mid pair + FD in 3bet pot

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5NL - mid pair + FD in 3bet pot - Tue Dec 18, 2012, 06:48 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi folks,

Table broke up quickly and we were 3 handed when this hand came up.

Villain is 12/12/3 with 15% 3bet (36 hands)
I think the stats could be very misleading with such a small sample.

So I decided to call a 3bet with 76s IP with over 100bbs effective stack. Again this is 3 handed so I can expect more 3bets to occur.



1. What do you think about calling pre against a some what tight unknown?

2. Do you like my raise on the flop? or should I have opted for a call (question is based on the stack size)

3. What can he bet on the turn and not re-raise the flop? I guess folding here is the only profitable option
 
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Wed Dec 19, 2012, 12:03 PM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Preflop action:
I'm not sure I would have called his 3-bet. Still, such is life.

Flop action:
Flush draw and a pair. So assuming the villain has a big pair or AK or so, I now have 9 outs to the flush, 2 sixes and 3 sevens for 14 outs. I'm not going away when he bets. However, I still beat onkly a naked Ace. Semi-bluffing here is an option, in which case I like the size, but I would call the bet. If he bets this big, I really think he has the K or may pocket Aces, and he won't be folding that. If he calls, it creates a huge pot, and I'm guaranteed to have to get my stack in. I don't wanna call it off with just a 6 and a flush draw.

More likely if he has a K or AA is that he's going to 3-bet me here. And then what: throw all my chips in the middle on a coin flip, or muck it? I'd rather call and see what the turn brings.

Turn:
I still have my 14 outs, I doubt he has 2 diamonds although AK of diamonds is an option, but I'll assume that's not the case. That gives me about 30% to win the hand - so I'm a 7 to 3 dog (about 2.3 to 1).
I need to ccall $2.21 into a $6.66 pot, getting 3 to 1 on a call. Mathwise, you can make the call here.


As for the last question: I'm putting him on something like AK, KK, maybe QQ. I wouldn't have called the raise with QQ myself, but who knows.


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Thu Dec 20, 2012, 06:33 AM
(#3)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hi

Quote:
1. What do you think about calling pre against a some what tight unknown?

2. Do you like my raise on the flop? or should I have opted for a call (question is based on the stack size)

3. What can he bet on the turn and not re-raise the flop? I guess folding here is the only profitable option
I think calling preflop is an option that you should not exercise really. Just let it go as they say.

2. No I don't actually. I think if we just call a few things can happen. a) we can occasionally use our position to steal this pot from better hands b) we can draw out in the straightforward way, spades, and get paid a moderate amount or draw out in the disguised way, a six or a seven, and get paid a big amount. c) if our opponent shuts down his betting we can sometimes show down our pair and win.

All in all we have great reasons to continue to use position here by calling. We can make better, more +EV decisions about putting money in having called in this situation than we do when raising.

3. The turn fold I don't know about. I might call in all honesty, expecting to always win the pot and his remaining stack on a 6,7, or spade, and then occasionally win when the river goes check-check. I should say very occasionally, if not rarely.

Really we set up this problem on the turn because our opponent did not do one of the two things we would have preferred on the flop, folded or moved all-in. While I would agree that this is the rarest option we expect to see it should be part of our game plan dealing with it.

Overall though I think fold preflop and just call the flop are going to be the best starting adjustments moving forward.
 
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Thu Dec 20, 2012, 07:09 AM
(#4)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
I think calling preflop is an option that you should not exercise really. Just let it go as they say.
Hi Gareth,
I like to add some SCs into my 3bet calling range IP along with hands like 88-JJ, sometimes QQ, KQs, AJs, and AQ (depending on who is 3betting ofcourse)

What specifically you don't like about calling here? Stack Sizes? Opponent type? or Hand type?
 
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Thu Dec 20, 2012, 12:34 PM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hi

I think you want to have some suited connectors, 76s is still a weak one. T9s, JTs, QJs, these are the strongest, most playable, most position friendly, suited connectors.

So it does depend on the range that I think my opponent is three-betting. If they are three betting a lot I would be four-betting a lot with my weak AX and KX hands and defending with those great suited connectors.

If they are tight AND play poorly postflop then I might add 76s at this stack depth, mostly in order to call to crack their aces, type thing.
 

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