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mistake in poker lesson "The-Rule-of-Two-and-Four"?

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mistake in poker lesson "The-Rule-of-Two-and-Four"? - Tue Dec 18, 2012, 06:55 PM
(#1)
Sascha ANJ's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 1
I believe the following outs calc is flawed, but I could be mistaken.
Wouldn't 99 give a better hand with trips as well?

.. see:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...f-Two-and-Four
.................>
 
1. You have  Tc 9d on a flop of Ah Js 8d. You expect your opponent has a hand like  Ac Th - ie, one pair - and therefore you need a straight to win. You have four queens and four sevens to make your hand. That is a total of eight outs.
 
Now apply the formula. The percentage of making your hand is: 
 
On the Flop: 8*4 = 32% (with 2 cards to come)
On the Turn: 8*2 = 16% (with 1 card to come)
 
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Wed Dec 19, 2012, 12:43 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi Sascha ANJ!

Welcome to the forum. Here's a link that will help to get you familiar with many of the options that PSO has to offer.

This calculation IS correct. The rule of 2 and 4 is only for estimating equity for single outs (not for runner/runner). The hand has an open-ended straight draw, so there are 4 outs on each end of the straight.
If you want to take into account runner/runner combinations, and for multiple opps ranges, the best thing to do is to use a program called pokerstove as it will give you the hand's exact equity. www.pokerstove.com

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Dec 19, 2012, 11:29 AM
(#3)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
A nine on the turn would do you no favours at all, your opponent would now have your straight draw plus his already overpair.

This reduces your outs, ( for a win ) to 2, the remaining nines.

 

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