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mistake in poker lesson "The-Rule-of-Two-and-Four"?

mistake in poker lesson "The-Rule-of-Two-and-Four"? - Tue Dec 18, 2012, 06:55 PM
Sascha ANJ's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 1
I believe the following outs calc is flawed, but I could be mistaken.
Wouldn't 99 give a better hand with trips as well?

.. see:
1. You have  Tc 9d on a flop of Ah Js 8d. You expect your opponent has a hand like  Ac Th - ie, one pair - and therefore you need a straight to win. You have four queens and four sevens to make your hand. That is a total of eight outs.
Now apply the formula. The percentage of making your hand is: 
On the Flop: 8*4 = 32% (with 2 cards to come)
On the Turn: 8*2 = 16% (with 1 card to come)
Wed Dec 19, 2012, 12:43 AM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
Hi Sascha ANJ!

Welcome to the forum. Here's a link that will help to get you familiar with many of the options that PSO has to offer.

This calculation IS correct. The rule of 2 and 4 is only for estimating equity for single outs (not for runner/runner). The hand has an open-ended straight draw, so there are 4 outs on each end of the straight.
If you want to take into account runner/runner combinations, and for multiple opps ranges, the best thing to do is to use a program called pokerstove as it will give you the hand's exact equity. www.pokerstove.com

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Wed Dec 19, 2012, 11:29 AM
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
A nine on the turn would do you no favours at all, your opponent would now have your straight draw plus his already overpair.

This reduces your outs, ( for a win ) to 2, the remaining nines.


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