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5NL - check raised with TPTK

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5NL - check raised with TPTK - Tue Dec 18, 2012, 07:05 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hello,

Sticky spot again!

Villain is 40/19/4 (50 hands)



I ranged my opponent hands to include: TT/99, AQ, KQ/KJ, Q9-QJ, J8, T9

Against that range we have 24% equity which does not justify calling the flop raise even. But I doubt we can find a fold there with TPTK just yet.

On the turn, I figured he could still barrel with AQ/KQ/QJ so I called and in my head I was thinking I would bet a blank river had he checked and fold to a bet/shove.

Should I have folded on an earlier street?
 
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Wed Dec 19, 2012, 11:48 AM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Flop action:
With top pair I'd like the c-bet. I *really* don't like the raise, but he could be doing this with any queen (which we mostly beat), or even a 9 or 10 thinking you're on a Ace high. I will flat behind and re-evaluate the turn here.

Turn action:
I will fold to his bet here. Yes, he may still be ona queen, but our call behind on the flop should tell him that we hold at least a Queen. At this point I'm thinking 'set'.


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Thu Dec 20, 2012, 12:43 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi geo,

I think your line is fine. He's really loose but not exactly passive by nature either. I think he can be getting aggro with worse hands that include a J or maybe just KQ, and even barrel the turn with these, but it seems unlikely he's making a big river barrel with top pair/worse kicker (possible but much less likely imo). Having some post flop info would be nice, and you should have some reads I'd think if he's played 20 hands voluntarily thus far... what has he shown down? What hand values did he play aggressively? Passively? These kinds of observations (which go beyond preflop stats you're quoting) will help a great deal towards ranging villains in these spots and determining when to get away early and when to stick it through.


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