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Was this a bad beat?

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Was this a bad beat? - Fri Dec 21, 2012, 12:54 PM
(#1)
badmankali's Avatar
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Would you have called it? I took him for having AA or KK if I was unlucky. Instead, he rivers a flush!
 
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Fri Dec 21, 2012, 01:09 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi badman!

I wouldn't classify this as a bad beat. Yes, at the flop I'd be ahead, but I'm only a 49.3% favorite to win the hand... so I will lose here more than I win.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Dec 21, 2012, 01:31 PM
(#3)
badmankali's Avatar
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Right... Would you have called it with two pairs?
 
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Fri Dec 21, 2012, 01:37 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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I'd have mucked it, as I'd expect the opp to already have a straight the overwhelming majority of the time there, which leaves me 4 outs.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 03:49 PM
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baud2death's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi badman!

I wouldn't classify this as a bad beat. Yes, at the flop I'd be ahead, but I'm only a 49.3% favorite to win the hand... so I will lose here more than I win.

John (JWK24)
You are more than a 49.3% fav in that spot, more like 59% (source: Odds Calculator)

I would consider this to be a bad beat but not up there with the worst... opponent didn't have a made hand, sure, but he did have 13 outs to improve his hand so from his side of things, he is slightly behind (almost flipping) to a pair so he might have thought it was worth a shot.

Personally I am worrying less about bad beats now than i used to. Fish will make fishy moves and you just have to live with it.

For me however a bad-beat is when you are ahead for most of the hand preflop or flop mostly... and then your opponent sucks out on you on the river with a 2 outer to knock you out.

AA vs 44 is a good example of a bad beat. Your opponent gets it in preflop and you are 80% fav to win the hand. The flop comes A-5-6.. you are now 95% fav to win. Your opp needs runner-runner 4s or runner runner straight to win.

Turn comes a 7.. now its down to just 4 cards (the 8s) and he fills his straight and you are out.


Another bad one... AA vs 22, 81% preflop again.
Flop comes 8-4-5. 88% still to win, you are doing good.
Turn comes 3, you just went down to 86% but still good.
River comes A... now you filled trips but your opponent got their straight.


These are 2 examples of hands where I feel I have a bad beat

Both I am ahead a BIG amount before money gets in, often 80-90%. I remain fav at 75%+ the entire hand but then either a) I have a monster in say Trips and get outdrawn to a better hand b) I have the best hand and improve to something better like a flush, straight or Trips and in doing so it fills in my opponents hand... getting your straight card to solidfy your lead hurts when the same card also fills in a backdoor flush for your opponent.

Its personal for each person i think... Phil Helmuth screams and shouts to complain if he gets a bad beat no matter what his opponent has... i have seen videos of him being up against opponents who got it in with a slightly weaker hand (ie 2nd two pair or 2nd trips) and win on the river for him to flip out.

Other players refuse to accept bad beats as something that bothers them... they just play so much that they consider any beat to be the same and something they can just shrug of as part of the odds... if you are beat, you are beat it doesnt matter if it is a flip you lose with or a runner runner quads.

If you wanna see a sick hand, search youtube for the Mizraki 2009 WSOP M/E FT .... boat vs boat hand where the lead for the hand changed dramaticaly on each street to the point where i think Mizraki and his opponent were 80% fav everytime a card was draw, swapping places... in the end it came down to a full house on the turn that then switched to another full house on the river for his opponent bettering his one.

Not exactly a bad-beat because the favor between opponent changed at each card being drawn but an unbelievable hand to watch.
 
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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 05:49 PM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
@baud2death

JdKh---49.28%

8s7s---29.35%

QcJs---21.37%


FLOP---JcKsTs


I'm thinking you did your calculation HU,it wasn't. This was a 3 way pot and you have to calculate all the hands equity. We're basing our judgements on what the odds were when the money went in and that has to include the QJ hand as well.

To the OP'er it's NOT a bad beat,it IS badly played by all involved though,yourself included.

You shouldn't be calling with KJo pre-flop to begin with,especially when a short stack is opening for 8x. After the flop...AQ,1010 and JJ are all easily in the range that players will flat call with pre at 2NL.Hell even KK for that matter as players are bad enough to try and make a hand like Kings into two 3's by playing "trappy" into a multi-way pot.

The 8s7s shove with 2 cards to his/her flush is also standard at this level. And with an 8 as their high card in any possible flush it's really quite terrible,to be honest.
 
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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 06:51 PM
(#7)
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
A bad beat is losing to a flush when you both have aces, or losing with quad aces to a royal flush.
 
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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 07:00 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guyguyson View Post
A bad beat is losing to a flush when you both have aces, or losing with quad aces to a royal flush.
Only if you were well ahead when the chips went in. If you were not ahead when the chips went in, these situations would not be bad beats either.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 07:10 PM
(#9)
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Only if you were well ahead when the chips went in. If you were not ahead when the chips went in, these situations would not be bad beats either.

John (JWK24)
Preflop shove so neither of us were ahead when the chips when in.

The quad aces was just a video I saw, poor guy probably thought he was going to stack a flush or full house. Might not be a bad beat just a bad time to get quad aces.
 
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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 11:10 PM
(#10)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
This is a bad beat, ahead all the way till the river, one outer.

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...531_D53D3D8DC7
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 11:43 AM
(#11)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hello Badman,

I do not consider this to be a bad beat, I consider this to be bad play.

In the first instant calling the first raise, there was no pressure, I thought it was an easy muck.

If you was to play the hand, maybe a 3bet would of been better, using your position and isolating the play.

The flop comes, you could of been behind to a straight or a set.

So no , not a bad beat and I could not consider this as a bad beat as the first call was what created this situation.

gl
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 11:59 AM
(#12)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
This is a bad beat, ahead all the way till the river, one outer.

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...531_D53D3D8DC7
Sorry to say this Joy, but I disagree, that is not a bad beat.

Again, this is exactly the same situation as Badman and the exact same leak.

Your failure to 3bet and isolate is what caused your problem.

Check, call shove, chasing a fishy draw when there's all ready a possible full house on the board?

That's not good Joy, I do know you are a winning player, and you will probably hate to have me as a critic.

Watch your hand again and see the problem you created yourself.

gl

Last edited by holdemace486; Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 12:03 PM.. Reason: added word
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 12:14 PM
(#13)
JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
Sorry to say this Joy, but I disagree, that is not a bad beat.
You've GOTTA BE KIDDING ME! The opp in the hand had only 1 way to win this hand, runner/runner. That's IT. Joy's an 82.677% favorite when the chips go in. That ABSOLUTELY qualifies for a bad beat.

John (JWK24)


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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 07:06 PM
(#14)
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
You've GOTTA BE KIDDING ME! The opp in the hand had only 1 way to win this hand, runner/runner. That's IT. Joy's an 82.677% favorite when the chips go in. That ABSOLUTELY qualifies for a bad beat.

John (JWK24)
Yeah gotta agree, if hitting a 1 outter isn't a bad beat nothing is. Although calling with AKs rather than 3 betting might not be the best move, depends on what joy was thinking really.

Also how likely is it that someone called with 97, 77 and flopped a full house? How likely is it that someone called with SCs and flopped a draw?

Theres 9 combos of pocket 7's they could have and only 7 9x combos and one 99 combo. for 17 combos of hands that could of made a full house there vs the 40 combos of suited connectors excluding anything lower that 54s and gapped connecors.

So it's at least 17:40 (40:17?) against them having anything that would of made that full house.

Last edited by Guyguyson; Mon Dec 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM..
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 08:41 PM
(#15)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
if joy had 3bet and then the AT may not of been in the pot to start with, and then check call an all in? chasing a draw when there was possibly better out there.
A donk bet was required on the flop, again the AT folds.

I still can not see this as bad beat, yes joy was ahead in percent on the call for the all in,

but they play that lead to that was not good imo.

Jw your bet would of been a raise pre-flop, the same as most players, limping is asking for trouble, is that not what you teach on PSO?

So how can a bad beat be perceived as a bad beat when the hand was not played correct to start with?.
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 09:11 PM
(#16)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
Sorry to say this Joy, but I disagree, that is not a bad beat.

Again, this is exactly the same situation as Badman and the exact same leak.

Your failure to 3bet and isolate is what caused your problem.

Check, call shove, chasing a fishy draw when there's all ready a possible full house on the board?

That's not good Joy, I do know you are a winning player, and you will probably hate to have me as a critic.

Watch your hand again and see the problem you created yourself.

gl

Are you high???!!!

Did Joy play the hand optimally? No,but that still does not change the fact that when the money went in she was a big favorite (83%>17%) and then the turn reduces this to a 1 outer for the villain.

98%>2% doesn't qualify as a bad beat in your world???!!!

Effing Amazeballs... >> FACE PALM SMILIE NEEDED<<
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 09:13 PM
(#17)
Guyguyson's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 114
A bad beat is usually losing against someone who played badly, like if they called an all in preflop against a set with nothing more than a backdoor flush, or when a strong hand loses to an even stronger hand like set vs set, altough thats usually referred to as a cooler.

So to sum up:

Losing when your hand equity is way ahead of theirs is a bad beat. How you played the hand has no bearing on wether or not something constitues a bad beat. Good or tight play can minimize unnecessary "bad beats" in marginal situations but conversely good play will also increase bad beats due to the fact you are playing correctly and they are just getting lucky.

Last edited by Guyguyson; Sun Dec 23, 2012 at 09:23 PM..
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 09:30 PM
(#18)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guyguyson View Post
A bad beat is usually losing against someone who played badly, like if they called an all in preflop against a set with nothing more than a backdoor flush, or when a strong hand loses to an even stronger hand like set vs set, altough thats usually referred to as a cooler.

So to sum up:

Losing when your hand equity is way ahead of theirs is a bad beat. How you played the hand has no bearing on wether or not something constitues a bad beat. Good or tight play can minimize unnecessary "bad beats" in marginal situations but conversely good play will also increase bad beats due to the fact you are playing correctly and they are just getting lucky.

Agreed guy,but good luck getting the Dawn's light to break on Dunderhead...
 
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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 11:12 PM
(#19)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
From the PokerStars Poker dictionary:

"Bad Beat - To have a hand that is a large underdog beat a heavily favored hand. It is generally used to imply that the winner of the pot had no business being in the pot at all, and it was the wildest of luck that he managed to catch the one card in the deck that would win the pot. We won't give any examples; you will hear plenty of them during your poker career."

I wasn't looking for an analysis, so I didn't provide any reads or any table dynamics. I have reliable reads on most of these players, and I feel no need to defend my play.

The fact remains that the opponent had no business being in the hand, much less shoving it. She hit runner runner of the ONLY TWO cards that could beat me, including the one card that could beat me on the river. Perhaps you could give us an example of a bad beat that would explain your point of view.

 
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Mon Dec 24, 2012, 12:28 AM
(#20)
csfguy's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 2
Ignoring any reads you may have had on them, calling with KJo is pretty bad. Against a raiser in early/mid position a lot of hands are ahead of you, and hitting one card could be trouble. You should not have been there.

With 4 other players, you knew you had to be behind before the flop. That flop was danger city all the way! Way too many outs for the others, if they hadn't already made their straight (AQ, say). Any Q had an open-end draw, if they have a flush draw too they are favored, no?

The blind betting out post flop smells bad (but maybe you thought them weak), the pre-raiser folding is a pleasant surprise, but surely one of the other two have at least draws if not a made hand already.

Sorry, back to the bad beat thing! Assuming no "reads" would I call all in with a flush + gut draw? Rule out the gut draw; any Q beats my 7-J straight. So it's just the flush, 8-7 at that. Probably wouldn't call with 1 more raiser still active, I'm likely drawing dead to a better straight or flush draw.

Questionable play all around, but since it turns out that the 8-7 is the best draw, and the other villain has an open-end draw, the beat can't be seen as bad. Top 2 pair is not strong with that flop at all! Or am I crazy?
 

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