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Satellite question.

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Satellite question. - Fri Dec 21, 2012, 06:54 PM
(#1)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Tonight, for the first time since I began to understand the difference between Saties and regular tournaments, I played a couple of satellites to the Big $4.40. This is from the £0.88 satie and I need some help to understand if this was the right place to pass up an obviously +EV spot in order to preserve my chip stack.
There were (about)115 entries to this tourney each starting with 1500 chips so my stack is quite nice at this stage. But with 21 players receiving the prize and 22nd getting $2.00 and 40 players left there is still a long way to go. The blinds are also going up every five minutes.
I dithered here for quite a bit as the factors in favour of calling and those in favor of folding seemed to me to be quite finely balanced.



In favour of calling 1) This is an is a snap call (pausing only to punch the air) in any ordinary tourney. 2)The raiser is TAG bordering on LAG playing 23/26(41) (don't ask me how his PFR is higher than his Vpip)and stealing 43% of 7 chances (100% of 2 from the button. 3) I don't love my situation at the table with a micro stack and two large stacks to my left inhibiting my own chances of stealing. 4) I might not have enough chips but I'm not sure how these things play. I don't know.

In favour of folding 1) there are several short stacks on other tables with 1,000 - 2,000 stacks and in fact according to my position in the tourney I'm comfortably in the money. 2)The rapidly rising blinds will put pressure on these player before I begin to feel the heat. 3) As fold equity seems to be so strong in a Satie I'd much rather be first in. 4) I might have enough chips to make the money as I stand.
In the end I decided that just because I was in so much doubt it was best to fold as this was likely to be the less serious error but I would value the opinions of those of you have more experience with this kind of tourney.
I did make the money but it could easily have gone the other way at the end as I only managed to play one more hand in the whole tourney picking up the blinds first in with A 9 suited.
All advice welcome,
Rob.
 
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Fri Dec 21, 2012, 07:08 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**


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Fri Dec 21, 2012, 09:11 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi RobinQQQ,

Yes, this looks like one of the situations for me.

So a .88 buyin paying $4.40 tickets means the average stack will be approx 5.5 times starting stack when the bubble bursts. 8250 chips. We don't need to have average but once we reach around that level of chips we should become a favourite to cash and maybe only need to steal a blind or two to guarantee.

Downside of losing this pot is pretty big probably about $3 in equity at a guess. The upside of winning is probably about 50c and being able to leave the computer to go get a sandwich while you win the ticket. We pretty much need to have AA in this spot to call. Even then ...

Good fold. Eyes on the prize!

Andy




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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 01:06 PM
(#4)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Cheers Andy. I've played a few more or these now and (touch wood) I think I'm getting a feel for them. The big mistake I've been making is picking ones that finish after the target tourney starts... Then I have to play the F***ing thing.
Rob.
 

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