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25NL Zoom Top Set River Line

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25NL Zoom Top Set River Line - Sat Dec 22, 2012, 12:13 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain 1 was an unknown.



We bet 2 streets for value with top set. Could have bet larger though.

River was pretty ugly. Don't like my bet-fold line. Because we hold 2 of the Aces already. It would be too optimistic for an Ace-pair to call 3 streets here.

So will check-calling the River be optimal in hope of catching a bluff, also minimising our losses in case he rivered the flush? Or check-fold?
 
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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 12:52 PM
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GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
If we are going to check, I think it is to check-fold. If we are going to bet, I think it is to bet-fold. I think if we are going to bet some size, it should be 6.50.

I don't really like check-folding, because QJ, for example, can bluff us pretty effectively and I don't like the idea of being so vulnerable on every diamond river that doesn't pair the board.

I think we should bet-fold, getting thin to win. While the case ace isn't that combinatorically likely, neither is a flush, and I think there are enough hands that can call that we can bet confident in our fold should we get raised.

Like I would never be worried about being bluffed here or making a bad fold in the fold portion of bet/fold. People don't make the bluff raise here and they don't value raise worse. Any slow played set or two pair will also pay us off in addition to some AX with one diamond like AXQd.

It is close enough though, just don't check-call!
 
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Sat Dec 22, 2012, 11:52 PM
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TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Didn't realise that there're still several hands that might call us on the river like TT, 33, T8 and Ax. Agree that they will almost never raise bluff here. Thanks!!
 

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