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2$ MTT, 76s, straight flush draw on flop

2$ MTT, 76s, straight flush draw on flop - Sat Dec 22, 2012, 04:54 AM
Corb3au's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 2

Hello everybody!
I am wondering, what is the correct way to play such monster draws. I realize, what I gambled in the replay above. I guess, my mistake was continuing after the turn.
Villain here is quite tight player(VP$IP - 17%) with total aggression factor about 1.5(after 56 hands played).
Sat Dec 22, 2012, 12:00 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
Hi Corb3au!

Welcome to the forum.

With 67s from the button and two limpers in front of me, I'm going to limp behind and hope to hit a part of the flop.

I flop a flush draw, straight draw and gutshot straight flush draw and have the opp bet 1125. Now, I need to see if it makes sense to call this bet. I need to put 1125 into a pot that will be 3645 (30.8%). If my hand equity is higher, then I'll call. If it is lower, I'll fold. I have 9 outs to the flush and another 3 outs to the straight (the 5 of clubs is already counted in the flush outs), so if the opp has a J or better, I have 12 outs. 12 outs times 2% per out means that my hand is worth 24%. Since the pot equity (30.8%) is higher than my hand equity (24%), while I do have a big draw, I do not have the correct odds to call and need to fold the flop.

I need to do the same type of calculation on the turn. I really can't call, since this is the overwhelming majority of my stack, so I need to either shove or fold. If I shove, it will be 3982 chips into a pot that will be 11609 (34.3%). I still have the same outs, so my hand is only worth 24%. Since the pot equity is higher than what my hand is worth, the turn is also a muck.

When playing a draw, I need to make sure that the value of my hand is higher than the value that I put into the pot. If my hand is worth more, then I expect to gain chips by calling. If the value of my hand is less, I expect to lose chips by calling and I want to be making plays where I expect to gain chips on average over time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Sat Dec 22, 2012, 01:27 PM
Corb3au's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 2
So my play is lacking math? Well, yeah, probably. Thanks for the evaluation!

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